Dry but chilly one year out of five

By EUGENE BINGHAM

New Zealanders face the prospect of power shortages and cold showers about every five years because of the effect of dry years on hydro electricity, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research warned yesterday.

NIWA hydrologist Charles Pearson told the Weekend Herald that supplies could be short for the next 15 to 30 years because of increasing demand on the hydro power.

The prediction follows Meridian's decision to abandon its Waitaki River scheme, Project Aqua, which raised the stakes in the debate about the country's energy prospects.

Most commentators believe the death of Aqua has highlighted the energy difficulties New Zealand faces, rather than causing a crisis.

But to consumers, the results are the same - risks of shortages, the prospect of power plants being built in cities, and bigger bills.

Energy Minister Pete Hodgson said yesterday that the average household could expect to pay about $80 extra a year on its power bills by 2010 because of Aqua's demise.

That is on top of rising prices caused by the increasing scarcity of fuel.

Mr Hodgson said his most pressing challenge was finding a replacement for the gas reserves expected to be nearly exhausted by 2015.

In the meantime, the country continued to heavily rely on hydro power.

Mr Pearson said this winter looked safe because the three main hydro lakes had good levels, but there were risks ahead.

The country was in a La Nina weather pattern, which reduced rainfall in the Southern Alps.

Perhaps more worrying was the result of a review of rainfall and lake levels for the 1992, 2001 and 2003 shortages.

While 1992 was a one in 60 year drought, records going back to the 1930s showed that 2001 and 2003's low rainfall were not "extreme events".


"Maybe we're looking at something like this sort of thing happening once every five years, mainly because of demand."

Dr George Hooper, executive director of the Centre for Advanced Engineering at the University of Canterbury, said New Zealanders had to accept that a new energy era had started.

Instead of large power stations, many small plants were needed.

"Communities will have to accept that these things are going to be more increasingly in their back yard and not across the field," said Dr Hooper. "We are moving far more towards a European model, which is power plants being built in cities.

"It will mean people looking at lifestyle blocks may need to understand there could be a power plant in their vicinity because that's the future we've decided for ourselves."

Chris Stone, energy industry expert and executive director of McDouall Stone, made headlines last month when he declared that New Zealand was in an energy crisis because of the impending loss of the Maui gas field.

The loss of Project Aqua, he said, did not help.

But as he believed New Zealand needed five Aqua-sized plants before the end of the decade, the loss of one of them did not overly worry him.

With or without Aqua, New Zealand needed to do something now.