Don't-knows take old Hamilton foes to wire

By GREGG WYCHERLEY

The battle for Hamilton East may come down to a large group of undecided voters as the poll gap closes and candidates redouble their efforts in a last-ditch vote grab.

National incumbent Tony Steel and his Labour rival, Dianne Yates, have been fighting over this marginal electorate since 1993.

Polls indicate it will probably go down to the wire again.

A Waikato Times poll out on Wednesday showed that Ms Yates' lead had dropped slightly since a poll on June 19, and indicated that Mr Steel had secured a small gain.

It put Ms Yates on 46 per cent, down 2 per cent. Mr Steel was on 34 per cent, a gain of 4 per cent. No other electorate candidate polled higher than 5 per cent.

But more importantly, the poll showed that about 30 per cent of voters were still undecided.

It is this group that the foes are trying to reach through last-minute doorknocking, public meetings and leaflet hand-outs.

"The key thing is the 30 per cent who say they are still undecided," Mr Steel said.

While he is pinning his hopes on winning over the indecisive, Ms Yates, unsurprisingly, is keen to read the polls her way.

"Usually we've found the undecideds go the same way as the decideds," she said.

"When they actually do decide, they usually vote in the same proportion as the decideds."

Mr Steel has been stung by polls before, and both he and Ms Yates have more faith in late door-knocking than market research.

When he lost to her in 1993, a voter survey taken two days before the election had him ahead by a comfortable margin.

"The last poll that was done showed that I had a 20 per cent margin, and I lost by 80 votes," he said.

Ms Yates, at number 29 on the party list, is virtually certain of a place in Parliament regardless of the Hamilton East vote.

But Mr Steel is fighting his last campaign. He is not on the National Party list, and says he will not contest the seat again regardless of whether he wins or loses it tomorrow.

"There's a lot of people I meet when I'm doorknocking who say, 'We really like the fact that you're going on the basis of a constituent MP only'.

"The last thing I want is to be imposed on the electorate if the electorate had indicated by their vote that they prefer someone else.

"This is the last time I'll be standing as a candidate for Parliament," he said.

Yesterday, while Mr Steel was with Bill English as the party leader closed National's campaign, Ms Yates was out on the road again, waving to early morning commuters.

"Two sleeps before the election and we're just out delivering every leaflet we've got left," she said.

While Ms Yates can be almost certain she is going back to Parliament, Mr Steel faces an uncertain future if he loses.

"I'm not considering that I'm going to lose - I have not thought of what I will do should I not get the big tick - it's just not an option."

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