KEY POINTS:
The economic mood and general feeling about how things are going are important ingredients in an election.
A buoyant mood usually goes for a Government and gloom against.
At the 2005 election the general feeling - whether "things are headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track", as measured monthly by UMR Research - was very positive (the chart measures the percentage of pessimists subtracted from the percentage of optimists). So was consumer economic confidence, as measured by the Westpac McDermott Miller quarterly survey (above 100 on the index is positive about household finances, below 100 negative).
In the autumn, as petrol and food prices, rents and interest costs rocketed, both measures plummeted. They recovered in the spring as petrol prices fell but, though now positive, remain well below 2005 levels.
On that score alone Labour's ratings have climbed.
There have been no new published polls since last week's poll of polls (from October 14 to 21).
New polls this week will reflect support closer to the election.
But iPredict, a Victoria University website on which you can buy and sell stock reflecting your prediction of the election outcome for parties and politicians, continues in real time. It emulates similar trading platforms abroad which are said by some to be accurate predictors of election outcomes.
At 3pm yesterday iPredict ranked National likely to get 47 per cent, Labour 38 per cent, the Greens 8 per cent, the Maori Party 4 per cent (and six seats), Act 3.7 per cent and New Zealand First 3.5 per cent.
Post-election surveys by Auckland University have recorded high numbers - 12 per cent in 2005 - saying they made up their minds in the last week. Polls in mid-October recorded "don't knows" at 10-15 per cent. That suggests there is still much to play for.
* Colin James is a member of iPredict's advisory group.
