Wairarapa-Bush can guarantee themselves a place in the semi-finals of the inaugural Heartland rugby championship by beating Horowhenua-Kapiti at Memorial Park, Masterton tomorrow.
With competition points being carried over from the pool games where Wairarapa-Bush were the only unbeaten side in pool A the home side go into the top six playoffs needing just the one win to make the semis, and they are eyeing this game as the ideal opportunity to achieve that objective.
That is not to suggest though that their following two playoff matches, against South Canterbuiry at Masterton and Wanganui at Wanganui, won't be treated with the same importance as victories there could be crucial to Wairarapa-Bush's chances of playing their semi-final at home and, all things going to plan, hosting the grand final as well.
Horowhenua-Kapiti have a history of making life difficult for Wairarapa-Bush on the representative front and they too have plenty of incentive to produce the sort of form which made them runners-up - yes, to Wairarapa-Bush - in the NPC third division competition last year.
The visitors go into tomorrow's match desperate for the maximum five points which would keep their semi-final hopes alive and if that doesn't compute into a fully committed performance nothing will.
With so much at stake it would seem fair to assume that the main thrust of the Horowhenua-Kapiti tactics will be to throw caution to the wind and rely on the pace and flair of their backs to provide what would certainly be an upset win.
For tactics of that ilk to be successful though they have to attain at least a reasonable amount of possession from the forward exchanges and whether they have the ability to do that is, going on reports of their previous Heartland games, debatable.
It was the Wairarapa-Bush pack who laid the foundations for the come-from-behind 20-19 win over Mid-Canterbury at Ashburton last weekend and while coach Peter Russell has expressed the wish that his backs have a higher profile tomorrow you can wager that control up front remains his number one priority.
Russell, of course, is co-coach of the national divisional side which will tour Argentina later in the year and it would be no surprise to see at least a couple of the Wairarapa-Bush forwards in that side.
For sheer consistency front rowers Dylan Higgison and Joe Harwood would be hard to go past and loosies Sylvanus Iro and Sam Henderson have been standout performers in game after game.
Higgison and Harwood will have their chance to push their case tomorrow as Horowhenua-Kapiti's scrum is reputed to be one of their main strengths.
They will be joined in the front row by young South African Albertus Buckle, who has made excellent progress during the Heartland campaign., both as a scrummager and as a forager in the rucks and mauls.
It will be in the lineouts though where Wairarapa-Bush will be looking to dominate possession as in Tomasi Kedarabuka, Mike Robinson, Henderson and Iro they have a group of players with ball-winning capabilities in that department. And, what's more, they and No.8 Mike Spence are all dangerous runners in broken play situations as well.
It might seem over-critical to suggest that the Wairarapa-Bush backs have yet to play anywhere near their potential this season when you consider their team's impressive unbeaten record in Heartland pool play but certainly they have more to offer, and coach Russell is encouraging them to prove that point tomorrow.
Russell is aware of the close attention given star midfield backs Nathan Couch and Simanu Simanu by opposing sides, a case of their reputation being as powerful attackers preceding them.
Not surprisingly then he is looking for other members of the backline to take greater responsibility in an attacking sense and there the onus falls fairly and squarely on the experienced inside combination of Hamish McKenzie and Patrick Rimene.
They have to be less predictable in their option taking so that the pace of wingers Junior Togia and Francis Seumanutata and fullback Peato Lafaele can be better utilised.
The defensive play of the Wairarapa-Bush backs will come under close scrutiny too as with Horowhenua-Kapiti sure to run at them from all angles and all parts of the paddock they will need to consistently make their first tackles count, something they haven't always done this season.
This then is a game Wairarapa-Bush should win, and win well, but at the same time taking Horowhenua-Kapiti lightly could be fraught with danger. Victory is no given, that's for sure.
Meanwhile the Wairarapa-Bush colts will be attempting to win the Hurricanes colts second division title for the second successive year when they play Horowhenua-Kapiti in Palmerston North tomorrow.The same two sides met only last weekend with Wairarapa-Bush starting well and then staving off a determined Horowhenua-Kapiti comeback and another intriguing battle is anticipated.
Wairarapa-Bush coach Mark Rutene respects the size and power of the Horowhenua-Kapiti forwards but is optimistic that the inventiveness of backs like Mike Hollis and Nic Olson will give his team a winning edge.
??The other undefeated side, Wanganui, who top the rankings for the Meads Cup, will meet sixth-ranked Mid Canterbury in Wanganui.
Mid Canterbury will be buoyed by their one-point loss to Wairarapa-Bush last Saturday but playing in Wanganui will be a far more difficult proposition.
Wanganui scored 186 points in their five round-robin games, including 65 against Thames Valley and 46 against Horowhenua.
Pati Fetuia (six), Ateria Ateria and Asaeli Tikoirotuma (both five each) are among the top try scorers in the competition.
In the other Meads Cup match, North Otago (third-ranked) host neighbours and fourth-ranked South Canterbury in Oamaru.
South Canterbury finished seventh in the NPC third division last year and are a surprise package in this top-six competition.
In the bottom-six Lochore Cup, Buller host King Country, Thames are at home to West Coast and Poverty Bay play East Coast in Gisborne.
Don??t count your chickens!
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