Pierre Gasly has some timely advice for Liam Lawson. Photo / Don Kennedy
OPINION
There are no certainties in sport, especially one reliant on mechanical reliability and performance.
Formula 1 can be predictable if the drivers have no engine problems or aren’t involved in a crash. But it will take an extraordinary reversal of form for defending world champion Max Verstappen to be denied a third consecutive world championship in this weekend’s Qatar Grand Prix. With a sprint race and the Grand Prix itself, Verstappen will have two opportunities to clinch the third title.
Given his imperious form in Japan with a 19-second victory over Lando Norris, compared to that of his Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez, who failed to finish the race, it is highly likely Verstappen will win the sprint race and collect the three points he needs to eliminate Perez from the championship, the latter being the only driver who can mathematically resist Verstappen’s inevitable charge to the title.
There are 180 points still available, and Verstappen is 177 points ahead of Perez. The latter will need to win the sprint race and will be hoping Verstappen finishes seventh or worse. Most likely, Verstappen will win the sprint race and it will be all over. Perez has to finish ahead of Verstappen in both the sprint and Grand Prix and pray Verstappen doesn’t score the three points he needs. Red Bull clinched its second consecutive Constructors’ title in Japan, and if Verstappen wins his third title this weekend, the focus for the remaining five races - the United States Grand Prix at Austin, Texas; Mexico; Brazil; the return to Las Vegas; and the season finale in Abu Dhabi - will switch to the battle for second, third and fourth in both the drivers and Constructors’ championships.
Currently, Lewis Hamilton is 33 points behind Perez in the drivers’ championship, with Fernando Alonso another 16 points back and, in his current form, in danger of falling behind Carlos Sainz, who is lurking another 24 points back. In the Constructors, repeat champions Red Bull are a whopping 318 points ahead of Mercedes, and Aston Martin, who were at one stage second on the table, are now 64 points behind Ferrari in third place and likely to fall to fifth place by the season’s end, as they are only 49 points ahead of McLaren, whose drivers are becoming regular podium finishers.
Championships decided, speculation continues around who will drive for Red Bull and sister team Alpha Tauri in 2025, if not next year. Despite the heroics of Liam Lawson filling in for an injured Daniel Ricciardo in the Alpha Tauri, scoring his first F1 points in Singapore and beating his teammate, Yuki Tsunoda, in Japan, he had been told before the Japanese race that Ricciardo and Tsunoda would drive for Alpha Tauri in 2024. Lawson’s response, at least with regard to the media, was to confirm he remains a Red Bull driver and will sit out 2024 as a reserve driver.
It is clearly a disappointing scenario for Lawson, who basically had every team quietly applauding his efforts. Many F1 pundits and TV commentators have been almost in disbelief that Lawson could be overlooked. Pierre Gasly, currently driving for Alpine, knows what it is like to drive for Red Bull, and then lose the drive.
He made his F1 debut with Toro Rosso (now Alpha Tauri) in 2017 in the Malaysian GP and was promoted to the Red Bull team to join Verstappen in 2019, when Ricciardo moved to Renault. But it didn’t go well, and Gasly was replaced by Alex Albon between the Hungarian and Belgian rounds. He was on the podium in Brazil later that season, and in 2020 won the Italian GP for Alpha Tauri. In doing so, he repeated the achievement of Sebastian Vettel, whose first Grand Prix win - of 53 - came in the 2008 Italian GP, driving for Toro Rosso. Gasly stayed with Alpha Tauri through 2020, before moving to Alpine.
“I know how it feels,” Gasly told Motorsport.com, in reference to Lawson’s scenario.
“It can be very difficult when you have to be so competitive as a driver, which you also have to be in Formula 1. You have the will, the desire and the motivation to go out there.”
“It definitely feels like he is ready to make that step to drive a full season. I also personally think he deserves it, but he needs to be patient. That’s not nice to hear, but unfortunately, there is no other choice. I am sure we will see him in 2025.”
The question is, with which team - Alpha Tauri or Red Bull? Red Bull boss Christian Horner says Perez will drive for Red Bull next year, but then he is out of contract and most pundits agree he won’t be in that team for 2025. If Ricciardo does not perform to the team’s expectations when he comes back from injury, which looks like it will be at the Circuit of The Americas (COTA) in Austin, Texas, then he may not get his promotion back to the Red Bull seat he left of his own free will at the end of 2018. Tsunoda may get the drive if Ricciardo is not considered to have regained his mojo, but given Tsunoda couldn’t beat Lawson in Japan despite starting ahead of him on the grid, you have to think Lawson could get to drive with Verstappen in 2025. His problem will be how best to twiddle his thumbs through a whole season, now that he has had a taste of F1.
Red Bull adviser Helmet Marko shocked the F1 paddock a few weeks ago with his comment about Perez’s erratic form.
“Let’s remember that [he] is South American and so his head is not as focused as Max Verstappen or as Sebastian Vettel was.”
His comment was deemed to be racist, and he was called out by Hamilton and several others. Marko apologized to Perez, who said he accepted it, but he has recently commented that when George Russell crashed in Singapore, “You don’t hear anyone talking about it”, adding: “I have the feeling the fact that I am Mexican has a big influence.”
The organisers of the Mexican GP say #Racepect is an open call for “all involved in motorsport,” and that “insults and unpleasant behaviour cannot go unnoticed, nor be allowed to continue”.
But ESPN Latin American commentator Fernando Tornello says Perez is doing better than a lot of people think.
“Max Verstappen is a driver who exceeds 10 points and Checo Perez is a driver who normally doesn’t go below eight or nine points, which is very good for a driver,” Tornello proffered. “There have been champion drivers with fewer points than Checo Perez can score. Checo is against a beast in the team, beating Verstappen is almost a utopia, and Checo has beaten him in a few races.”
Tornello suggests Marko’s remark about Perez’s nationality shouldn’t be taken as being racist or xenophobic, but rather that it should be taken with a pinch of salt.
“I think he [Marko] does it to prod, to prick his drivers, so that they get more out of it, and with grit and effort, they improve. I think in Checo’s case, what he said is for that.”
Keys has been a grand slam semifinalist on six previous occasions.