Disconnected getting the call

The Labour party this week kicked off a big direct marketing drive to get state house tenants to vote. It reckons a seat or two might be lying just below the radar among these transient, often disconnected citizens.

Both main parties are keenly aware that in 2002 only 72.5 per cent of those eligible voted, large numbers of them disaffected or dismayed National sympathisers. Six per cent of them had not even enrolled, though the law requires it.

Non-voters dwarf the opinion polls' "don't knows", who averaged 8.7 per cent of the four most recent polls (in addition, "no vote" averaged 1.6 per cent and "keeping it to myself" 2.2 per cent).

Also dwarfing the "don't knows" are the up to half of those contacted by pollsters who refuse to take part. Probably more influential on the result are those a party persuades to vote. Meanwhile, in the see-sawing election race the Greens could be critical.

The accompanying chart shows the seat distributions at roughly weekly intervals since mid-July.

When the Greens dropped below 5 per cent in late July/early August, Labour's side fell behind National's, even though Labour was well ahead of National.

* Each week the Herald examines an aspect of the poll-of-polls. Each point on the chart represents the average of the four most recently published of the Herald DigiPoll, Colmar Brunton (TV1), UMR (National Business Review), TNS (TV3) and BRC (Sunday Star-Times).

All five are in the mix at all times but the average at any one time is a different combination of four of the five polls. The latest average is: BRC, polling midpoint August 20-21, Colmar Brunton, midpoint August 23-24, TNS, midpoint August 27-28 and DigiPoll, midpoint August 27-28.