The outcome of the grand final of the Wairarapa-Bush premier division rugby competition between East Coast and Masterton Red Star at Memorial Park tomorrow will very likely come down to one word ... discipline.
With the two protagonists having had a win apiece in their two meetings so far this season and looking evenly-matched right across the paddock the short odds are that goal kicking will be crucial to the end result.
Which means in turn, of course, that the side which infringes the less will be doing themselves a huge favour, something sure to have been stressed by team officials during the build-up to the big one.
Not that the East Coast or Masterton Red Star players should need reminding as the first of their preliminary round matches at Whareama resulted in a 15-3 win to Masterton Red Star with all of the points coming from penalty goals. Interestingly enough the referee on that occasion was Chris Jefferies, who will also have the whistle tomorrow.
In their second clash too the importance of accurate goal kicking was amply demonstrated with East Coast's 27-23 winning margin being so narrow only because they missed several penalty attempts and Masterton Red Star landed three and a couple of conversions to boot.
Without having any specific stats to back the assessment it does seem referees at club level have been keeping an eagle eye out for infringements in two particular areas of the game, mauls and tackled ball.
Some people will argue, of course, the high penalty counts have been more a case of the referees being picky rather than the players actually doing bad deeds but the fact remains they have the right to penalise for any rule misdemeanour, no matter how small and ineffectual they might seem from the sidelines.
And no matter how often players will argue their case they have absolutely no chance of changing the referee's mind either.
It is important at the same time, however, that the referees don't lose sight of the value of the advantage rule whose intent is to give the non-infringing team the chance to maintain momentum providing they have the ball in safe keeping.
Several times this season there have been grumbles from coaches over the advantage rule being too conservatively applied and from what this writer has seen they have not been without substance either.
It would be a pity if tomorrow's grand final was dominated by the whistle as both East Coast and Masterton Red Star have a penchant for playing a free-flowing style of rugby.
They have the collective and individual skills to entertain what is certain to be a large and enthusiastic crowd and hopefully they will do exactly that.
The tactical approach of the two teams promises to be similar in kind ... well, at least for starters anyway.
Asserting superiority up front will be, as usual, the initial objective and it's difficult to imagine either side gaining huge dominance in any department there.
The suspicion is, however, that East Coast will fancy their chances of having an edge in the more physically demanding areas of scrums and mauls where hard-nosed types like Darren Walker, Willie Leota and James Balfour will lead the way.
And Masterton Red Star will be backing noted ball runners like Tim Hintz, Jake Bubb and Stu Waipuka to make the biggest impact in broken play.
It should be pretty much even- stevens in the lineouts with Balfour and Joe Feast ruling the roost for East Coast and Tyrone McTavish and Bubb likewise for Masterton Red Star and the struggle for loose ball should be very competitive. Chris Senior has been in outstanding form for Masterton Red Star there as has a relative newcomer to the East Coast ranks in Aaron Waihi.
One of the most intriguing aspects of tomorrow's game though will be the battle of wits between the two most influential backs in Wairarapa-Bush club rugby this season, Masterton Red Star first -five Byron Karaitiana and East Coast fullback Nick Olson.
Karaitiana is not only the best goal kicker around - he has already landed 38 penalties this season - but he also possesses a hefty punt and Masterton Red Star tend to have him using it regularly for territory gain.
Problem tomorrow, however, is that in the speedy and elusive Olson East Coast have the competition's best counter attacker and if Karaitiana is not accurate in his placements Masterton Red Star could find their defences being stretched in the twinkle of an eye.
Already Olson has nine tries to his credit this season, a testimony to his ability to make the most of any errant kicks from opponents. In fact, his try count is the main reason for his narrow points lead over Karaitiana going into the grand final, 182 to 176.
East Coast also have other nifty runners with ball in hand in first-five Zeb Aporo and second-five Sam Mitchell while Masterton Red Star will be expecting their Wairarapa-Bush representatives Heemi Tupaea and Jordan Watene to take a leading role whenever they choose to move the ball by hand.
A win to East Coast just one season after they lifted the Tui Cup for the first time in their history would be a notable achievement as would victory for Masterton Red Star considering they could not even field a premier division side last year because of a shortage of players.
The likely starting line-ups for tomorrow are:-
EAST COAST
: Nick Olson; Peter Gray, Jess McGilvary, Sam Mitchell, Damien Paku; Zeb Aporo; Luke McKenna; TK Karaitiana; Aaron Waihi, James Balfour, Justin Haira, Joe Feast; Tereina Rimene, Willie Leota, Darren Walker.
MASTERTON RED STAR:
Greg Paku; Ronald Mita, Heemi Tupaea, Pua Taffa, Jordan Watene; Byron Karaitiana; Callum Buchanan; Stu Waipuka; Chris Senior, Tyrone McTavish, Jake Bubb, Jordan Sutherland; Tim Hintz, Owen Riddell, Nathan Haglund.
Bring it on!!!!!!
