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The prevalence of obesity-linked type 2 diabetes has rocketed ahead of official predictions, leading to a massive increase in the expected future costs of treating the disease, a new study says.
The research, for Diabetes NZ, is to be presented to its conference in Hamilton today and reveals that on the latest estimates the prevalence is nearly 20 per cent higher than the ministry predicted in 2001.
The ministry, in its 2006 estimate, puts the number of cases at 213,800 - nearly 35,000 more than forecast.
PricewaterhouseCoopers' analysis for Diabetes NZ suggests this will boost the number of diagnosed and undiagnosed cases of the disease to around 380,000 by 2021, compared with about 250,000 on the earlier data.
"It's a serious situation," the support group's president, Murray Dear, said last night.
"If our predictions come to pass, and there is a high risk they will, the severe impact will not only be on the suffering of thousands of people with severe diabetes complications, but ... across the whole health system as funds are dragged from other areas of need to stem the demands of diabetes."
But the ministry interprets its latest estimates differently.
Chief clinical adviser Sandy Dawson said last night that the larger than expected increase in the estimate of diagnosed cases probably meant a higher proportion of people with the disease were being diagnosed - because of a big effort going into diabetes care and screening in primary health care and greater community awareness.
He said this argument was supported by the substantially greater numbers of middle-aged and elderly people now having diabetes tests; and by a screening study which indicated that for every two cases of diabetes picked up there was one in the community not diagnosed.
Previously the ratio was thought to be one person undiagnosed for each diagnosed case.
Diabetes NZ said its new study showed the need for an immediate Government increase of about $50 million for preventing and treating diabetes if the country was to avoid massive future costs.
The study predicts the disease and its debilitating complications will gobble up 15 per cent of state health spending by 2021, compared with 3 per cent now.
This year the Government will spend about $540 million on type 2 diabetes, the support group says.
On this path, it will be spending $1.78 billion annually by 2021. But if it invested the recommended extra now, it will avert the "impending crisis" and be spending $1.41 billion by 2021.
Diabetes can lead to complications such as kidney failure, limb amputations and blindness.
Dr Dawson said the Government had increased spending on preventing and treating diabetes, through, for instance, the primary health care strategy, screening projects, and programmes to prevent obesity.
The Counties Manukau District Health Board alone is spending $10 million over five years on its Let's Beat Diabetes project, aimed at prevention and improved treatment.
