Derek Cheng: Boscawen looks like he's changed his mind

John Boscawen. Photo / Herald on Sunday

Act deputy leader John Boscawen looks like someone who has changed his mind in the Act leadership stakes.

Boscawen holds the balance of power in any leadership vote in a caucus of five MPs, as does Hilary Calvert. A vote from either could tip the balance in Don Brash's favour.

Calvert has consistently said since the beginning that she would vote for Rodney Hide over Don Brash. Boscawen hasn't.

He initially refused to give that assurance, despite being asked repeatedly. On Sunday he told me he was 100 per cent behind Hide's leadership, but he refused to comment when I asked him directly if he would vote for Hide.

He also refused to comment to the Dominion Post when asked if he believed Hide was the best person to lead Act into the election.

Yesterday evening TVNZ's political editor Guyon Espiner said Boscawen told him the same thing he said to me - that he backs Hide but would not comment when asked if he would vote for him in a leadership challenge.

Only later last night did Boscawen indicate that he would vote for Hide. But he did not say so himself. His spokesman said so, adding that that had been Boscawen's position all along.

The evidence suggests otherwise.

His answers to media twice avoided how he would vote, and once avoided whether he backed Hide as leader to the election, and can only be seen to indicate that Boscawen was at least considering switching sides, and possibly had already.

Maybe that is what gave Don Brash the confidence to publicly make his move last weekend.

Brash will undoubtedly target both Calvert and Boscawen. Calvert could be tempted by a higher list position. Boscawen could still switch again. That Boscawen and Calvert have the future of the party in their hands will be high pressure.

The board has the power to overturn the caucus' choice for leader, but party president Chris Simmons has said it would be very unlikely to do so as it would put the board and the caucus at loggerheads. As another board member put it, it would be like detonating a nuclear bomb in the party.

Given Brash's intention to set up a new party if his leadership coup fails, or rebrand Act if it succeeds, it may be just a matter of time before Act is a bombsite.