Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has fallen 10.6 percentage points in the preferred Prime Minister stakes in last night's Newshub-Reid Research poll. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has fallen 10.6 percentage points in the preferred Prime Minister stakes in last night's Newshub-Reid Research poll. Photo / Mark Mitchell
COMMENT:
Support for the Labour Party and Jacinda Ardern appears to be sliding, but not nearly as catastrophically as last night's Newshub-Reid Research poll suggests.
The poll put Labour on 41.6 per cent and Ardern on 38.4 per cent, both about 10 percentage points down from the lastNewshub-Reid Research poll in June.
That June poll had National trailing Labour by 13 percentage points, but came out on the same day as a One News Colmar Brunton poll that showed a far different story, with Labour on 42 per cent and National on 44 per cent.
The disparity in June led many to suggest that one of them must be a rogue poll, and the Newshub-Reid Research poll must now be the strong contender.
While not necessarily haemorraghing support, Labour's support still appears to be slipping.
That will be concerning to the party, even though a slide was inevitable given the halo that followed Ardern's response to the March 15 shooting, and in the wake of Labour's second scandal over the mishandling of party complaints alleging sexual assault.
Labour still remains in prime position to form the next government, and is still well above its 2017 election night result of 36.9 per cent.
On last night's result, Labour could form a government with the Greens, whose belief that the party's core support is steady at 6 per cent was reinforced by the poll.
The poll again showed New Zealand First below the 5 per cent threshold, but the party usually performs better on election night than in polls.
It may well be heartened that its support was up by 1.2 percentage points despite leaks about disgruntled party members and complaints about candidate selection and the handling of party donations.
(The poll was conducted from October 2 to 9, covering the period of leaks as well as Lester Gray's resignation as NZ First party president.)
Support for National leader Simon Bridges and the National Party has increased in the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll. Photo / Michael Craig
Act will also be buoyed by last night's poll, given that the party almost doubled its support and, if David Seymour held on to Epsom, would have two MPs in Parliament.
This is further good news for National, which was the most popular party with 43.9 per cent - up 6.5 percentage points - but still appears to be short when it comes to coalition friends.
Simon Bridges will have a springier step when Parliament resumes this week, having also overtaken Judith Collins in the preferred PM race - though he is still acres behind Ardern, and being the most popular PM candidate in the party you lead shouldn't really be a cause for celebration.
Bridges will also be pleased that last night's poll showed an increase in support from those who think he is performing well, reversing a trend that has followed him since the fallout over Jami-Lee Ross.
The poll will be an endorsement of tactics that may indicate the type of election campaign we will see next year.
Expect more of National's attack ads on Labour and Bridges' defiance of Speaker Trevor Mallard's ruling to take down those videos.
Likewise, expect Seymour to continue to carve out his own electoral niche as the sole opposition to gun law reforms and the champion of widening free speech laws, a stance that has opened him to accusations of pandering to the racist vote.
Seymour denies this and was quick to claim that Act's newfound support was the result of "people responding to principle", but that seems unlikely given Act has been so close to lifeless for so long while singing the same old tune.
There’s that number in yellow on Newshub tonight. ACT starting to rise. Thank you to everyone who's stuck by us so long...
The poll would translate into a House that would see a mere two-seat swing separating the left and right blocs, but it will take more than one poll to indicate how close the contest has become.
We now await tonight's One News Colmar Brunton poll.
