'Delay' plan ignored - motorway critics

Opponents of Auckland's Waterview motorway have accused the Government of ignoring a prediction by the Ministry of Transport that delaying it for 10 years would boost its economic justification.

Transport Minister Steven Joyce received the advice in December, when the Government was assessing a proposal inherited from Labour for twin tunnels along most of a 4.5km route beneath Oakley Creek.

A ministry report, since released under the Official Information Act, said investment in smaller targeted transport projects would deliver more dispersed but immediate economic stimulation as well as significant network improvements.

The Waterview link could be postponed for 10 years, and growing traffic volumes would increase its economic value.

"This is not to say the Waterview Connection should never be constructed, but improvements in Auckland's arterial road network could well ameliorate the transport network around the Waterview area, such that construction of the Waterview Connection could be postponed," the ministry said.

The report was sent to Mr Joyce while the ministry and the Treasury were warning the Government that the estimated cost of a pair of two-lane tunnels had soared to $2.77 billion, including $550 million in debt-financing fees and $242 million for widening part of the Northwestern Motorway to cope with extra traffic.

They estimated the project would give a modest return of $1.15c for every dollar of cost, but the ministry said that delaying its completion until 2025-26 was likely to boost the payoff to $1.70c.

The project has since been amended to a surface-tunnel proposal for $1.4 billion, which would be wide enough for three motorway lanes in each direction, but would require the demolition of up to 365 homes and destruction of 5ha of parkland.

That price still includes the Northwestern upgrade but with no debt-financing, and the Transport Agency has raised its payoff estimate to $1.70c - coincidentally the same as forecast for delaying the more expensive twin tunnels.

The agency's board is now weighing up strong support from business groups and the Automobile Association against fierce local community opposition, before deciding within the next fortnight whether to prepare planning applications for a 2011 construction start.

AA spokesman Simon Lambourne said at a hearing in Mt Albert last week that 67.4 per cent of 3100 surveyed members wanted the Waterview link opened as soon as possible.

He reminded the agency of an AA-commissioned report in 2006 which predicted annual financial benefits of $840 million from completing Auckland's western ring route.

But Waterview resident Margi Watson of the Tunnel or Nothing group said the agency's economic assessment did not stack up as it relied too heavily on overly-optimistic travel-time savings and did not include hefty social and environment costs.

Other opponents urged the board to heed a warning this month from the International Energy Agency that world oil production was likely to peak in 10 years, far earlier than previously estimated, increasing the need for better public transport.

Auckland University senior economics lecturer and former Treasury employee Rhema Vaithianathan, a Mt Albert resident, has meanwhile calculated that keeping the $1.4 billion earmarked for the project in the bank for 10 years would earn enough interest to halve bus-fares throughout the region.