Army flying out of Auckland's Whenuapai Airbase to help train Ukrainian infantry recruits. Photo / Michael Craig
Army flying out of Auckland's Whenuapai Airbase to help train Ukrainian infantry recruits. Photo / Michael Craig
The Government has appointed a high-flying panel to advise on a two-year-long review of defence citing "strategic competition" in the region and climate change as the major "challenges".
It comes at a time of rising geo-political tensions between global superpowers China and the United States with increasing potential for "confrontation and conflict", with each vying for increased influence in the Pacific.
While the review terms of reference have blanked out exactly which countries "strategic competition" refers to, the Ministry of Defence Annual Report refers directly to that between China and the United States.
The review terms also note that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is an "inflection point in global security that further degrades New Zealand's strategic environment".
Minister of Defence Peeni Henare today announced a panel of six people, including a former deputy prime minister, to provide independent advice on the two-year defence policy review.
The panel will be chaired by Sir Brian Roche, who chaired the 2015 Defence White Paper advisory panel and led three reviews of defence procurement.
The panel also includes defence and strategic studies expert Professor David Capie, chief executive of the National Emergency Management Agency David Gawn, Sir Don McKinnon, former deputy prime minister and Secretary-General of the Commonwealth, NZ Customs Service chief executive Christine Stevenson and chief executive of NZ Māori Tourism Pania Tyson-Nathan.
Defence Minister Peeni Henare and Commander Joint Forces NZ Rear Admiral Jim Gilmour as Army personnel flew out to help train Ukrainian infantry recruits. Photo / Michael Craig
Henare said the review was being undertaken to ensure the ministry had the policies and equipment it needed to do its jobs, including protecting the security and stability of our region.
"The Defence Policy Review is being undertaken to ensure New Zealand's Defence policy, strategy and planned capability investments remain fit for purpose given the impacts of climate change, Covid and the intensification of geostrategic competition," he said.
A draft defence policy and strategy statement will be provided to Cabinet for approval this month and a future force design principles statement by April next year.
The complete review - including producing a White Paper (report), costings and capability plan - is due to be finished by mid-2024.
The Ministry of Defence's annual report stated New Zealand faced a world in which "strategic competition is increasingly the background for states' relationships".
"China's rise is the major driver for this competition. Globally, strategic competition is most visible between China and the United States, but all other states are involved to varying degrees."
It says this growing strategic competition will increase potential for "confrontation and conflict".
"Strategic competition will play out across a range of theatres [including in space and cyber space] in ways that will threaten New Zealand's security: this is true of both the wider Indo-Pacific and in New Zealand's immediate Pacific region."
It also noted the "accelerating impacts of climate change will have fundamental effects on global security", but were being experienced "early and deeply in the Pacific".
"The direct human security impacts of climate change will increasingly intersect with and exacerbate national security challenges.
"For some countries, including in the Pacific, the threat is existential."
This follows the Defence Assessment 2021, delivered in December, which also warned of China's increased strategic interest in the Pacific and intention to increase its military cooperation.
"China views an increased presence in the Pacific as part of its natural progression towards its global goals, but there are also more specific reasons for Beijing's interest, spanning geopolitical, strategic and economic drivers," the assessment said.
"A range of other countries are also seeking to increase their Pacific engagement and presence for a variety of reasons, including the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, France, Indonesia and Russia.
"This expanded interest means increased crowding, complexity and competition."
The assessment said among other military issues, the most threatening potential developments were establishment of a military base or dual-use facility in the Pacific by a "state that does not share New Zealand's values and security interests".
Just a few weeks ago the United States announced an historic nine-point plan and strategy document with leaders of 14 Pacific island nations, who also along with the US put their names to a joint declaration.
The US' Pacific push was first outlined by Vice-President Kamala Harris at the Pacific Islands Forum in July, in an unprecedented move seen by experts as a clear "power play" aimed at its superpower rival China.
The announcement followed concerns around the Solomon Islands and China security pact, and an ultimately unsuccessful push by Beijing to achieve a wider security and economic agreement in the Pacific.
