An increasing number of schools will post financial deficits this year, partly because of the continuing decline in foreign fee-paying students, says Secondary Principals Association president Graham Young.
He said concerns about the downturn in numbers of foreign students were raised about 18 months ago and continued to be a worry for schools.
The cash from foreign students had become significant for some large schools.
In some cases nearly half of some schools' income was derived from sources other than government funding and for many up to a third of their income was self-raised, he said.
Mr Young said problems in attracting fee-paying students included the high dollar, the shrinking of the Chinese student market, and fall-out from publicity surrounding the failure of some language schools.
Schools which had taken smaller numbers of international students might now be wondering if it was worth carrying on as enrolments dropped.
"You have to have a significant number in a school to make it viable."
At his school, Tauranga Boys High, about 50 foreign fee-paying students were there two years ago compared with about 30 now.
Mr Young said the whole country had to be concerned about the problem because the international education industry was the fourth biggest export industry.
Avondale College principal Brent Lewis said his school was managing to hold numbers but he was aware other schools were having problems.
"I've heard some principals are extremely worried about it."
Mr Lewis said Avondale College took about 130 foreign students each year and had a policy of seeking them from a wide range of countries including Europe and South America.
He said a lot of schools had become quite dependent on the extra income because of what they saw as inadequate government funding.
"The money generated has significantly enhanced the quality of education here in the last decade."
Education New Zealand, which represents international education across all sectors, has highlighted a sharp drop last year in the number of international students in English language and secondary schools, but said numbers were steady in the tertiary sector. Spokesman Stuart Boag said that while it was difficult to forecast what would happen this year, an increase was not expected.
Mr Boag said the Chinese market had fallen away considerably.
In 2003 the placements of Chinese students had peaked at 53,000, compared with 30,000 last year.
Mr Boag said the high numbers of Chinese had been something of a phenomenon partly because they once had little choice about where they could go.
However other countries such as Australia were now competing hard for that market.
Mr Boag said institutions that were diversifying their student sources were coping better with the downturn.
A Ministry of Education spokeswoman, Christine Field, said the numbers had returned to about the same level as in 2001.
However, our good education system and high average student achievement continued to make the country an attractive destination for foreign students.
Changes in the exchange rate were among a number of factors that had influenced whether students came here to study.
Foreign fee-paying students at NZ schools
2004 14,477
2005 11,299
Amount paid in fees to NZ schools by foreign students
2004 $155m
2003 $167m
Decline in foreign students costing some schools dearly
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