Come November, will National destroy its brand by relying on Rodney Hide - again - to form a government? The man who knowingly allowed an MP into Parliament who'd stolen a dead baby's identity? Or will the National Party faithful tire of Act's antics and select a strong candidate of their own for the Epsom seat?
Hide holds Epsom thanks to John Key, and National needs Act's current five seats. However, Act's polling is now abysmal and, thanks to Hide's non-leadership and Aucklanders' dissatisfaction with rising Supercity costs, the party may be further punished at the polls.
But it's Hide's behaviour over the David Garrett passport affair which has centre-right women voters in Epsom particularly disgusted.
Well-placed sources tell me Key knows this. "Key personally asked one woman what she'd do if he asked her to hold her nose and vote for Hide and she said she'd defy him."
National has to do something about this problem.
A leaked poll by the so-called "alternative support party" shows John Banks, Don Brash, Colin Craig, and even Winston Peters, would rocket past Hide in Epsom. That must have made the little populist break out in a sweat.
But it's no more than he deserves. Last weekend's Act Party conference was a joke; lurching from the hysterical ("mine national parks") to manic outbursts ("shoot the natives"). Hide continued using Key - the most popular prime minister in living memory - as a punching bag, yet he went into coalition with him to get the baubles, only to spend them taking his girlfriend overseas.
It's like watching a newly married wife undermine her husband at a dinner party. You want to yell: "You married him. Stop bagging him in public."
Has Hide learned nothing from the Christchurch conference, when he blurted to Act members that Key does nothing, and Act is left to do everything? How long will Key's tolerance last?
Act will wheel in focus groups of women who'll tell them this is not acceptable. Phrases like "John Key has no spine", still available on the Act website, will be replaced with more cuddly language. There were hints in Hide's conference speech, such as "nudging" National in the right direction. Too little, too late. Leopards. Spots.
The night before the conference, on Radio New Zealand's Focus on Politics, Hide slipped up. In a short interview of 10 minutes he said he was "very proud" of himself a total of four times. Not very proud of John Boscawen, Heather Roy or Roger Douglas.
Very proud of his own honour and integrity. And very proud of Garrett for resigning. Anyone who has lost a baby or grandchild in infancy would have screamed listening to that. To know Garrett obtained name suppression for such an evil deed, and Hide knew all along, coupled with the hypocrisy of pushing through that three strikes legislation, is just a bridge too far.
That Hide continues to say he is "proud" of Garrett is all too much. That's why the women of Epsom - and, I suspect, many of the men - won't even, for the good of the centre-right, vote for Act. It's visceral, not rational, I know, but stealing a baby's identity is indefensible.
Hilary Calvert blames media for low polling, but the party is bereft of liberal policies. Hide, the "libertarian", took defence off Roy (a soldier) because it wasn't "a core role for the party". In light of the Christchurch earthquake, and the liberal philosophy of the state defending its citizens, yet another stupid decision.
It's unfair to bring Act down to Hide's level - good people still support the party. But how many? There's talk Act's membership is down to 600, so the coffers must be strained.
Hide's intolerance of dissenters has led to the set-up of this alternative group. At first seen as irrelevant, they're fast gaining momentum. They have money. They have brio. They have some Epsom support - an electorate desperate for a candidate with integrity.
If National don't give them one, they risk gifting campaign slogans to Labour, like "National + Hide = ?".
Deborah Coddington: National must pull the curtain on Hide's Act
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