KEY POINTS:
Deaths are likely to outnumber births in 26 of 73 local authority areas by 2031, according to research issued today by Statistics New Zealand.
Southland will be the worst off with a natural decrease of 1200 people.
Other areas estimated to have more deaths than births, a natural decrease, by 2031 are: Masterton (200), South Wairarapa (100), Marlborough (900), Kaikoura (100), New Plymouth (200), Wanganui (300), Kaipara (100), Kapiti (600), Thames-Coromandel (600), Hauraki (500), Buller (200), Westland (100), Timaru (800), Waitaki (600), Clutha (600), Gore (400) and Invercargill (400).
The number of deaths is expected to increase in all cities and districts, despite continued increases in life expectancy, because of the increasing number of people reaching old age
By 2031, SNZ predicts 78 per cent of New Zealand's population will reside in the North Island compared with the current 76 per cent.
The North Island's population is projected to be near 4 million by 2031, compared with 1.1 million in the South Island.
Most of this growth will be in Auckland where the research predicts population to increase by between 1 and 1.7 per cent by 2031.
The Auckland region is projected to account for 62 per cent of New Zealand's population growth between 2006 and 2031, increasing from 1.4 million to 1.9 million.
Waikato is expected to see the second largest increase with population growth estimated to be between 0.1 and 1 per cent.
A median age of 50 years or older is projected most regions.
- NZPA
