Deal over Epsom unlikely

ACT leader Rodney Hide is trailing 14 points behind National candidate Richard Worth in Epsom, making it extremely unlikely that National will do a deal to help Act survive.

A One News-Colmar Brunton poll last night put Mr Worth, the sitting MP, ahead on 44 points, Mr Hide on 30 and Labour candidate Stuart Nash on 20.

Several factors make it unlikely that any signals will be sent to National voters to help save Act by electing Mr Hide.

First, success would need to be guaranteed and the wide gap between Mr Hide and Mr Worth offers no certainty that National voters would do what they were told.

Secondly, the Labour candidate has enough support to stymie the move if his supporters follow the Prime Minister's call to vote for Mr Worth, if necessary, to keep out Act.

And thirdly, New Zealand First and United Future's decision to to deal with highest-polling party makes National far less likely to support Mr Hide.

National will hope that the poll will convince Act voters in the rest of the country that their party has no chance of being elected and to give their vote to National.

As the Herald-DigiPoll showed, a fraction of Act's vote could increase National's chances of leading the next Government.