Simon Bridges and Jacinda Ardern. Photos / Mark Mitchell
Simon Bridges and Jacinda Ardern. Photos / Mark Mitchell
COMMENT
Despite propaganda coming out from China it doesn't seem like the coronavirus is slowing down. There are also rumours from the United States that President Donald Trump is going to escalate his trade disputes again, and he will be doing so against the backdrop of a broken World TradeOrganisation.
The US government has blocked the appointment of any new members to the appellate body. That's the body that hears international disputes. At the moment there is one active member; it needs at least three before it can hear disputes. This means that any and all trade disputes are at the mercy of the leaders of the countries involved.
It would be naive to suggest that there won't be an impact on New Zealand from these international events. When you throw in the rapidly changing weather patterns that are bringing more extreme weather due to climate change, you have a pretty challenging storm for any government to overcome.
And then of course you also have one of your coalition parties engaging in self-destructive behaviour when faced with a donations scandal. NZ First should look to National on how to respond to a donations scandal. National's donations that sparked Serious Fraud Office charges were actually made directly to the party, and the leader is recorded being told how the donations will be broken down to fit the $15,000 cap.
In my view, NZ First actually has plausible deniability, regardless of how skeptical I am of it. The money was donated to the NZ First Foundation, not the party, and there's no record that I'm aware of which shows Winston knew what was going on.
The Green Party seems to have lost the ability to speak out on principled issues it once championed, while ACT seems hell bent on courting the small but vocal alt-right vote. Or as they are more formally known, the white supremacist vote.
This backdrop of global turmoil combined with a complete domestic shambles will take us into election 2020. And though the average voter may not pay attention to everything that is going on, the average voter is usually smarter than they are given credit for. They'll know that it's messy and they'll likely seek comfort and stability.
This will make it a shoot-out between Bridges and Ardern over who voters think will provide the most stability in times of crisis.
The advantage that Ardern has is she has shown what she can do in a crisis and it's been pretty impressive. Her response to the Christchurch terrorist attack has been covered in just about every media outlet in every country on Earth. While her response to the Whakaari-White Island eruption also demonstrated her humanity.
At the same time, as the world sits teetering on a recession, her government has also kept the "key indicators" of the economy strong. Unemployment is low, wages are going up faster than they have for a long time and despite the fact it's a sham and actually the wrong thing to do, surpluses are being made which people seem to love.
The only adversity we've seen Bridges truly face up to is his own dismal ratings. But he did weather the worst of it and emerged out the other side with … just as bad ratings. But in doing so he stared down what seemed like an inevitable spill by Judith Collins and is still leader so that counts for something.
NZ First leader Winston Peters fronting the media over the SFO investigation into party funding. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Had he been a John Key clone he would have a much stronger chance of becoming Prime Minister. NZ First MPs seem to want to get in to bed with progressive parties just so they can stop things. This has caused many to have nostalgic feelings to when Key was in charge. That his relaxed manner about just about everything meant New Zealand was steady and things were ok.
But Bridges isn't Key, he's a social conservative for one thing. And he hasn't demonstrated the warmth or likeability that meant that despite being worth well over $100m, Key was seen as just one of us. Perhaps more crucially Bridges hasn't been the steady hand on the tiller. He's been a leader obsessed with opposing for the sake of it and going negative over every issue.
There's still a strong chance that the global economy will be allowed to slide into a dark place, and that despite its best efforts this Government will get blamed and chucked out. But I think the major question that voters will ask themselves as they walk into a polling booth is do I want Prime Minister Ardern, or Prime Minister Bridges?
