Cyclone set to miss NZ but heavy rain coming

11.45am

A tropical cyclone currently battering Vanuatu is likely to miss New Zealand, the Met Service says.

While that will be some relief to areas recovering from devastating floods last week the weather still has a sting in its tail, with a depression currently off the Queensland coast set to dump heavy rain on the North Island this weekend.

"This is likely to bring a lot of rain to the North Island on Saturday and maybe also to the west of the South Island," forecaster Eric Brenstrum told NZPA today.

"It's possible there will be rain in the headwaters of the Whanganui, Rangitikei and Manawatu Rivers -- significant amounts of rain."

Mr Brenstrum anticipated the Met Service would be issuing heavy rain warnings -- falls of 50mm in six hours or 100mm in 24 hours -- for large parts of the North Island and parts of the South Island.

The Met Service has just received new information about the likely path of Tropical Cyclone Ivy, Mr Brenstrum said.

"The newer computer runs are just trying to nudge the track slightly further east, so it is still going to pass very close to the East Coast of the North Island, possibly even crossing over near East Cape at the end of Sunday.

"Although the threat to the North Island is certainly there with this system on Sunday, there is some cautious hope it will pass to the east."

The cyclone would still likely bring high winds and maybe heavy rain in eastern areas, but on its current path was likely to bypass flood-stricken areas, Mr Brenstrum said.

"But then we've just said it's going to rain there on Saturday so it may only of academic interest for some of those people."

News of heavy rain warnings will concern local authorities who have been watching river levels drop in the past few days.

Horizons Regional Council -- covering Manawatu, Wanganui and Horowhenua -- said in a statement that river levels throughout the district had been falling steadily.

The Manawatu River had fallen to 1.89m, compared with 8.9m at the height of the floods. The Rangitikei was at 3.88m from a high of 8.1m, the Whangaehu at 2.26m from a high of 13.2m, and the Whanganui was at 3.51m compared with a flood peak of 10.06m.

The state of emergency in the district had been allowed to lapse yesterday, but Horizons said it expected a chance of flooding in Feilding.

"We've got to be grateful for small mercies," Horizons chairman Chris Lester told NZPA today.

"We're really glad we've got this break in the weather so that we can effect repairs."

Horizons was unlikely to reinstate a state of emergency, but staff would be working over the weekend in case rivers rose higher than expected.

"Everybody is still on deck. We're operating at full capacity in terms of monitoring and repairing the flood control systems."

Fine weather over the past few days had meant repair crews had been busy patching up stopbanks and flood control systems, Mr Lester said.

"That's going to involve temporary repairs. The priority is to get the place watertight again, even if we have to use temporary measures to do that. Then, as the opportunity arises we'll convert those temporary works into permanent repairs."

Yesterday, the South Taranaki District Council decided to maintain a state of emergency for the region until March 1. However, that decision would now be reviewed tomorrow, council spokesman Gerard Langford told NZPA.

"I would imagine the rain would be factored in when they make their decision," he said.

Yesterday, building inspections were carried out in Waitotara, 34km northwest of Wanganui, and civil defence officials met with property owners about possible demolition of condemned buildings.

Waitotara was one of the worst-hit communities in the region, with more than 30 homes evacuated. At least three have been condemned.

Power had been restored to most of the valley, although phone reception was still intermittent. The town's water supply was still being decontaminated.

"The Waitotara Valley Rd has been cleared and 4WD access can be achieved for essential vehicles," a statement said.

"Problems are still being experienced in the area and residents will be encouraged to limit travel in the valley to essential movement only."

Last week's floods and associated high winds have been estimated to have caused more than $100 million worth of damage. On Tuesday the Government announced advances of $850,000 for local councils -- the first time the Government has paid up front for emergency relief rather than reimbursing councils afterwards.

Several hundred people remain homeless, others are still without power and telephones, and several roads remain closed.

Farmers have about six weeks to re-cultivate the land before winter sets in, but some have to wait for their land to drain before they can resow.

Yesterday, Federated Farmers vice-president and Fonterra shareholders councillor Charlie Pedersen said the floods would cause the failure of some small farmers.

South Taranaki District Council would meet tomorrow to discuss "and most likely lift" the state of emergency in the region, council spokesman Gerard Langford told NZPA.

No special plans had been put in place to deal with the threat of heavy rain but staff would be on alert in case rivers started to rise again.

The Waitotara River was running at 1.66m today and falling at approximately 20mm an hour. At its peak the river was at 13.49m, Mr Langford said.

- NZPA