Colourised Infrared Satellite map show the structure of Cyclone Pam is now changing significantly as it begins the transition to Ex-Tropical Cyclone. Photo / MTSAT
Colourised Infrared Satellite map show the structure of Cyclone Pam is now changing significantly as it begins the transition to Ex-Tropical Cyclone. Photo / MTSAT
Tropical Cyclone Pam is slowly weakening as it approaches New Zealand, but will still be "a very powerful tropical cyclone" as it passes the country within a few hundred kilometres.
The storm is currently northeast of Whangarei, with the most intense winds around the centre of the low expected to hit the northeastern corner of East Cape tomorrow, WeatherWatch said.
The cyclone's centre would likely remain offshore.
"Pam's outer bands arrived this afternoon with rain this evening now setting into Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty, East Cape, Gisborne and some parts of Hawkes Bay," WeatherWatch analyst Philip Duncan said.
The eye of the storm was expected to track "far enough east to avoid causing too much damage in Auckland", Mr Duncan said.
"There may be a few powercuts and isolated areas of damage."
The eastern Bay of Plenty, East Cape, Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay were the regions at highest risk, and were "likely to be walloped by potentially destructive winds on Monday", Mr Duncan said.
The eastern Bay of Plenty, from Whakatane to Kawerau and towards the eastern ranges, could also expect gale force easterlies to develop tonight, turning to severe gales tomorrow
Gusts in some areas could reach between 150km/h and 200km/h in some pockets, Mr Duncan said.
Gisborne and East Cape will be exposed to gales overnight and during the day on Monday.
"Gales are likely to climb to 150km/h for at time during the day and may be sustained severe gale for a time in the most eastern, exposed, areas north of Mahia and up to East Cape," Mr Duncan said.
"The centre of Pam is likely to turn more southerly after it passes East Cape on Monday morning - and that means strong winds will slide down the eastern coastline as that severe 'squash zone' of gales is pushed southwards along the North Island's eastern seaboard."
Severe conditions were expected to ease into Monday night and Tuesday morning.
In Gisborne and Hawkes Bay, many schools and education centres - including Gisborne Boys' High School and all Eastern Institute of Technology campuses north of Wairoa - have stated they would remain closed tomorrow due to severe weather forecasts.
MetService said Tropical Cyclone Pam had been downgraded to a category 4 cyclone.
A severe weather warning has been issued for northern and eastern parts of the North Island, where heavy rain and south to southeast gales were expected from this evening through to Tuesday.
Auckland Civil Defence is advising Aucklanders to "exercise extreme caution" as periods of heavy rainfall and strong winds hit the region overnight and into tomorrow.
It said surface flooding and slips are expected to cause difficult driving conditions, while general disruption across the city from localised problems was more likely than prolonged power outages or significant damage.
Residents north of Whangaparaoa were warned seas could rise to around 3.5m this afternoon and rise further to 5m on Monday morning. Streams and rivers could also flood north of Whangaparaoa.
The Civil Defence is also warning that coastal erosion should be expected for low-lying coastal communities north of Whangaparaoa when high tide hit on Monday.
Communities with the highest risk included Leigh, Omaha, Point Wells, Whangateau, Waiwera, Orewa.
Some coastal roads on Whangaparaoa Peninsula may be impacted at Arkles, Matakatia and Hobbs Bays.
Areas north of Orewa could expect periods of heavy rainfall between 7pm tonight and 9am tomorrow.
Big produce growers Leaderbrand and Cedenco have been busy harvesting in the Gisborne area.
As of 3.40pm, rain was starting to set in across Northland and Great Barrier Island, WeatherWatch analysts said.
"It looks as though the eye of the low is going to track far enough east to avoid causing too much damage in Auckland, although some damage and power cuts are possible ... but the worst is definitely going to be east of the city.
"Expect isolated damage and some power cuts during the peak of the winds, most likely after midnight and before dawn."
WeatherWatch said Northland was also expected to "cop some damage" from the severe gales this evening and overnight into Monday morning.
However, the main concern was still for East Cape, Eastern Bay of Plenty, Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay.
These areas were about to be "walloped by potentially destructive winds", WeatherWatch said.
"Pam is basically moving parallel to northern NZ - if you were to draw a line from the Far North to Gisborne that is basically the angle the low is coming in at.
"Because the centre is round and wide it will bulge out and push gales west into Northland and Auckland overnight as the low itself continues to track towards East Cape."
The latest forecast track of Pam approaching NZ. Photo / JTWC / US GOVT
At this stage, severe weather will hit in the early hours of Monday morning around East Cape, and will then spread south during the morning.
Gisborne and the East Cape would be exposed to gale force winds overnight and especially tomorrow before being hit with more severe weather in the morning.
"Gales are likely to climb to 150km/h for at time during the day and may be sustained severe gale (hurricane force) for a time in the most eastern, exposed, areas north of Mahia and up to East Cape as the low tracks by just off the coastline."
The worst of the severe gale southerlies will ease at night, before midnight likely.
WeatherWatch said the storm's centre was likely to turn more southerly after it passed the East Cape on Monday morning.
"That means strong winds will slide down the eastern coastline as that severe 'squash zone' of gales is pushed southwards along the North Island's eastern seaboard."
In the Eastern Bay of Plenty, gale force easterlies would develop tonight, turning to severe gale southeasterlies during Monday, then more southerly later in the day.
Places like Whakatane and up the eastern coastline, plus inland to Kawerau and towards the eastern ranges, would be affected by these winds, which in some areas may reach between 150 to 200km/h, WeatherWatch said.
Severe weather would also hit northern Hawkes Bay tomorrow morning.
Reports indicate areas in the Far North have already been hit with 100km/h wind, while MetService is warning it could reach 120km/h as it heads south.
While the region is still expected to be spared from the full impact of the cyclone it is still expected to be a significant event.
GFS (US Govt) wind map for Monday morning - purples, reds and oranges indicate the damaging winds (esp purple).
In the Western Bay of Plenty, massive swells of up to 7m and winds of up to 110km/h are expected overnight.
Moderate rain and south to southeast gales were expected through to tomorrow but would clear by Tuesday in Tauranga.
MetService meteorologist Leigh Matheson said southeasterly winds would strengthen in the Western Bay overnight and would continue through this morning gusting up to 90-100km/h.
Tomorrow morning would bring strong southerlies with moderate rain of 2-3mm per hour, she said.
Opotiki mayor John Forbes said they were doing everything they reasonably could to prepare for the predicted foul weather.
"We hope this thing moves out further to the east but you just don't know what will happen, so we are preparing for the worst case scenario," Mr Forbes said.
"We're doing everything we can do, we have been meeting with Civil Defence and have been in touch with our 14 coastal radio stations to make sure our communities are aware. We have been in contact with the old peoples homes and fortunately schools are not in at the moment, but overall we are pretty prepared," he said.
Whakatane mayor Tony Bonne said council contractors had been busy clearing drains and gutters.
"I think we're as organised as we can be. Just before the weekend we made sure gutters were cleared out and sprayed in areas where we've had problems. Our council staff have done as much as they can and we've asked residents to check their own drains in their street.
"Where we've had surface flooding before like in Douglas St and the Wainui Te Whare stream area, we've set a digger up in preparation," Mr Bonne said.
"This afternoon we will also be having a briefing of emergency services."
A contractor's yard is open where sand bags are available for purchase, with some businesses already stocking up for their shop fronts.
"Quite a few [bought them] ... the word is now that it will be more wind than rain but with any tropical cyclone things change by the hour so you have to be prepared."
Mr Bonne said there was no sign yet of the expected severe weather.
"It's just overcast, there's no real winds but its the lull period."
Firefighters and appliances are also moving into the vulnerable coastal areas as Cyclone Pam approaches.
Fire service deputy national commander Paul McGill said deploying resources now would provide extra support for local crews and allow personnel to get into position in areas likely to be cut off by flooding.
"Getting in early will enable us to respond more effectively when the cyclone hits," he said.
Mr McGill said the Fire Service had activated three of its regional and five of its local co-ordination centres to ensure crews and equipment were used to best effect.
He said firefighters would provide as much assistance as possible to local communities. This was likely to include helping people isolated by flooding and slips or stuck in vehicles, pumping out flooded buildings, salvage work and securing damaged buildings.
In the Hawkes Bay, Civil Defence group manager Ian Macdonald said the situation was being closely monitored and preparations made for heavy swells and strong winds in coastal area.
People were advised to be prepared for periods without electricity by readying torches, candles and an alternative cooking source.
"People need to make sure their family emergency plans are up to date, with their properties prepared for strong winds, and a getaway kit all ready - just in case," he said.
Police said they had contingency plans in place for severe weather and heavy flooding.
Spectators at the Cricket World Cup match between West Indies and United Arab Emirates in Napier enjoyed good weather but kept one eye on the horizon as clouds steadily gathered, hoping it would not be rained out in the late afternoon.
Participants at the Farmlands Horse of the Year Show are advised to delay travelling to Hastings with 100mm of rain and 120km/h winds likely to hit between 1am and 2pm tomorrow.
Horses are already on-site for the event, starting Tuesday, and plans are being made to get them under cover.
Those who arrive on Sunday will be directed to the nearby Hawke's Bay Racing Stables. A team of 20 volunteers will be at the Hawke's Bay Showgrounds overnight to make sure people and horses are safe.
There are also 8000sq m of marquees at the grounds, which will be "locked down" at 6pm today until 2pm tomorrow.
"We are advising people not to put goods in the marquees. I am very worried about the prognosis of the storm, however, I am confident we have robust systems in place that will ensure safety to all," show director Kevin Hansen said.
The forecast for the rest of the show week was "brilliant".
More than 2600 horses and riders are expected to compete over the week.
Heavy swells expected
MetService meteorologist Fulong Lu said Cyclone Pam was expected to remain a very deep system as it passed to the east of the country late Monday and Tuesday.
Apart from heavy rain and severe gales, the cyclone was also expected to bring very heavy swells to the North Island east coast from Northland to Hawke's Bay.
"A high sea warning with hurricane force wind is in force with this system, which also brings torrential rain, unusually heavy swells and very large waves.
"People considering venturing near or into the water, are advised to take extra precautions, especially when winds are onshore, and check the latest forecasts for expected dangerous conditions."
At 7am today the cyclone was located 850km north of Cape Reinga, and was moving southeast about 52km/h, MetService said.
The cyclone's expected track was now slightly further west and on this course it was expected to lie about 620km north to northeast of Cape Reinga at 1pm this afternoon.
By midnight tonight it would lie 420km north of East Cape.
WeatherWatch analysts said northern and north eastern parts of the North Island would be exposed to damaging winds and flooding rains.
As the storm passed by New Zealand overnight tonight and through Monday, these winds would extend for a few hundred kilometres from the centre.
"This means even though we expect the very centre of the low to be just off our east coast, the damaging winds surrounding it extend out - and these are the winds that are going to slide down the North Island - quite suddenly into the early hours of Monday."
As Cyclone Pam approached, more than 70 firefighters and 30 trucks and other specialist vehicles were heading towards coastal areas in the North Island.
The Fire Service is moving an Auckland taskforce to Northland, Hamilton and Rotorua taskforces to eastern Bay of Plenty, a Wellington taskforce to Hawkes Bay, and a Hawkes Bay taskforce to Poverty Bay.
Fire Service Deputy National Commander Paul McGill said theses crews would provide extra support for local crews and allow personnel to get into position in areas that were likely to be cut off by flooding.
"Getting in early will enable us to respond more effectively when the cyclone hits."
Mr McGill said the Fire Service had also activated three of its regional and five of its local co-ordination centres, to ensure crews and equipment were used effectively.
He said firefighters would provide as much assistance as possible to local communities.
This would include helping anyone isolated by flooding and slips or stuck in vehicles, pumping out flooded buildings, salvage work and securing damaged buildings.
Meanwhile, Civil Defence Minister Nikki Kaye has warned communities in the northeast of the North Island to prepare for the possible impact of Cyclone Pam.
Ms Kaye said although she had been advised Pam was losing strength as it headed south, MetService had forecast severe rain and wind in affected areas.
"Local councils and civil defence teams have spent the last few days informing communities and working with relevant agencies to prepare for potential severe weather.
"My message to New Zealanders living in affected areas is to make sure you have good preparations in place.
She encouraged people in affected areas to keep up to date with MetService forecasts.
The Northland Civil Defence Emergency Management Group said although the area looked set to be "spared" the worst of the remains of Cyclone Pam, severe gales and heavy rain would still hit this afternoon and overnight.
MetService has issued a severe weather warning, forecasting a period of heavy rain from midday today until Monday morning. Around 80mm to 100mm of rain was expected to fall.
MetService have also warned that gale force south easterly winds would hit eastern parts of Northland this afternoon.
These winds could rise to severe gales, gusting up to 120km/h this evening, before eventually weakening on Monday morning.
Residents were warned that winds of this strength were likely to cause damage to trees and powerlines, and could lift roofs and make for hazardous driving conditions.
Spokeswoman for the Northland Civil Defence, Shona Morgan, said all Northlanders should take the usual precautions for strong winds and rain.
This included securing large heavy objects or anything that could be potentially dangerous.
Yachties were also encouraged to check their moorings and ensure their vessels were properly secured.
"Provided people take the usual precautions and adopt a common sense approach, we are not anticipating too many issues beyond those these conditions would normally bring. "Civil Defence will continue to monitor the situation closely over the remainder of the weekend and will update the public as required."
It said general disruption across the city from localised problems was more likely than prolonged power outages or significant damage.
Residents north of Whangaparaoa were warned seas could rise to around 3.5m this afternoon and rise further to 5m on Monday morning. Streams and rivers could also flood north of Whangaparaoa.
The Civil Defence also warned that coastal erosion should be expected for low-lying coastal communities north of Whangaparaoa when high tide hit on Monday.
Communities with the highest risk included Leigh, Omaha, Point Wells, Whangateau, Waiwera, Orewa.
Some coastal roads on Whangaparaoa Peninsula may be impacted at Arkles, Matakatia and Hobbs Bays.
Areas north of Orewa could expect periods of heavy rainfall between 7pm tonight and 9am tomorrow.
MetService have warned that severe wind and heavy rain was likely for the Bay of Plenty, especially east of Edgecumbe from tonight.
This would include southeast gales gusting 120km/h, with gusts in excess of 160km/h possible in the east.
Around 200mm of rain was expected to hit the eastern Bay of Plenty area from Sunday evening through to Monday morning.
Bay of Plenty Civil Defence has urged residents to ensure they are adequately prepared. Residents were urged to secure or move indoors any large heavy objects outside that could blow around in high winds, like outdoor furniture and rubbish bins.
They were also encouraged to lift valuable household items and chemicals as high above the floor as possible.
Those in the area should also avoid driving if possible.
Regular updates will be provided on Bay of Plenty Civil Defence Emergency Management's website: www.bopcivildefence.govt.nz
Gisborne
Gale-force winds and huge swells were expected to lash the east coast from midday today.
Gisborne emergency manager Richard Steele said winds of up to 150km/h had been predicted. "[These] will cause damage especially in areas exposed to the southeast."
Mr Steele said there had been widespread concern after the storm was reported as worse than Cyclone Bola - which caused severe damage in 1988 - but Pam was a very different kind of storm.
"It is more intense - faster, but on a different track. People remember distinctly what happened with Bola, rivers flooded and there was silt spread all over the place. That is not going to be the case here."
Mr Steele said those on the coastal strip would get hammered. Swells up to 9m were expected. "It's also going to be windy as hell and the rain is going to feel much much worse that it is."
He said communities like Tolaga Bay, Tokamaru Bay and Anaura Bay would be hit hard. Power cuts across the region were likely and residents needed to have back-up supplies or at least gas for cooking.
Hawkes Bay's emergency manager Ian Macdonald said the major concern was heavy swells, which were due to hit tomorrow afternoon.
"At this stage the rain and the wind is not likely to cause us any major issues, but the swell is probably our biggest concern, in particular the settlements of Te Awanga, Haumoana and Waimarama.
"We've been already out talking to those residents, who are likely to be impacted, giving them advice around making their properties secure and getting ready for evacuation should they need to.
"These are areas which in the past have been impacted, so it's just a matter of our local guys getting out there, talking, and getting people prepared if they have to evacuate."
A period of heavy rain was expected about the ranges and for places north of Napier from Sunday evening until Monday evening.
From 9pm today until 9pm tomorrow, areas north of Napier could expect 180mm to 200mm of rain about the ranges and between 100mm and 140mm near the coast.
South of Napier, between 100mm to 140mm of rain was expected about the ranges and coastal hills, MetService said.
