Cyclone Judy: NZ ‘in the clear’ - but Vanuatu in for direct hit

New Zealand appears to be “in the clear” of any impacts from freshly formed Tropical Cyclone Judy – but Vanuatu could be in for a direct hit this evening.

The cyclone, which just reached category 2 strength, was positioned northeast of Vanuatu this morning, and moving west to southwest toward the island nation this morning.

MetService’s latest bulletin warned that Judy could bring large waves, heavy rain and gale- to storm-force winds as it tracked over Vanuatu’s eastern islands this evening.

Tomorrow, Judy was predicted to develop into a category 3 cyclone as it moved southward over Vanuatu, before turning southeast on Thursday, and out of the tropics later on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone (TC) Judy has intensified to a category 2.

It's expected to directly impact Vanuatu as a severe TC (category 3) over the next 36 hours.

Thereafter, ensemble modelling shows the TC passing well north & east of New Zealand and not directly impacting our weather. pic.twitter.com/VXejNGMhbF

— NIWA Weather (@NiwaWeather) February 27, 2023

MetService forecaster Andrew James said all models put Judy reasonably far east of New Zealand – even past the Chatham Islands – although some easterly swells were possible around the East Coast later this week.

“We look to be in the clear, as far as Aotearoa is concerned, but it’s a different story for Vanuatu and parts of New Caledonia, as this thing passes directly over them.”

Meanwhile, forecasters were watching another two weak tropical lows over the Coral Sea.

One was “poorly organised” - and the chance of it developing into a tropical cyclone was considered very low for the next two days.

Another was expected to move east, and the chance for it developing into a tropical cyclone was expected to become low on Wednesday, but moderate on Thursday and high from Friday.

That system was expected to move across or close to Vanuatu later in the week.

James said a ridge of high pressure was helping keep cyclone systems away from New Zealand.

“After losing this low we’ve got at the moment, we’ll get some ridging toward the end of the week,” he said.

🚨🌀#Updated Cone of Uncertainty for Category 2 #CycloneJUDY.

Biggest threat is to #VANUATU and the capital #PortVila - with a direct hit by a Severe Cat 3 storm expected.

⚠️🇫🇯Fiji Met: https://t.co/zFp93JinTL
⚠️🇻🇺Vanuatu Met: https://t.co/tlAc7gwT8R

- https://t.co/gb7E1quzdb pic.twitter.com/CScu65Af6L

— WeatherWatch.co.nz (@WeatherWatchNZ) February 27, 2023

“There’s a bit of heavy rain in the East Coast of the North Island at the moment, but that’s expected to ease off with just a few showers remaining by the end of the day.

“Then, the North Island gets a bit of a dry run with a ridge of high pressure. There are a couple of fronts that may bring some rain to the West Coast, but generally, it’s looking pretty benign for the next few days.”

Historically, late February and early March marked the height of our November-to-April cyclone season.

In a given week around this peak period, chances of a cyclone being present in the southwest Pacific was typically at least 50 per cent.

Each season, around nine cyclones formed up in the southwest Pacific, of which least one travelled within 550km of our country.

But this season had come with an elevated risk, with Niwa warning at its outset that one to two systems could head our way – as had since come to pass with Gabrielle and Hale.

Much of that could be explained by the unusually warm current state of tropical ocean waters in the Southwest Pacific – something partly caused by three years of La Niña.