A private weather forecaster says Cyclone Gabrielle’s new track could mean Aucklanders experience less storm surge than expected but are battered by stronger southerlies that last longer.
WeatherWatch says Cyclone Gabrielle’s air pressure is expected to drop in the next 24 hours, making the storm more intense.
Follow live updates of the cyclone here
The lowest air pressure from the storm was expected before dawn on Tuesday.
At 8am on Monday, WeatherWatch said the storm was located just north of the country and its slight eastern track for Auckland could reduce storm surge but mean strong southerlies continue longer.
“All potentially record-breaking low air pressure.”
On its website, WeatherWatch said in simple terms, the lower the air pressure the more powerful and severe the storm would be.
“It makes the storm more unstable and will see wind and rain spread further out.
“The fact this intensification is going to occur as Gabrielle approaches the Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula regions makes it more problematic and complicated.”
WeatherWatch said the centre of the storm had weakened a little over the past 36 hours – but was expected to intensify further again today as it got closer to land.
Twenty-four severe weather warnings and watches have been put in place across the North Island as almost every school in the region is closed. All trains in Auckland have been cancelled as residents are urged to stay home.
States of Emergency are in place in Auckland, Northland and Coromandel, and at least 25,000 homes are without power.
Cyclone Gabrielle is approaching Northland and is likely to bring “extreme, impactful and unprecedented” weather to many North Island regions today and tomorrow.
Heavy rain and strong winds are already causing damage and MetService says there is more to come as the storm moves down the North Island and to the top of the South Island later today and tomorrow.
The wind and rain is expected to start picking up again in Auckland after it had died down this morning as the wind changed direction.
MetService has issued more “red” warnings in response to Cyclone Gabrielle than any other weather event since the warnings were introduced in 2019. Red is the highest warning category issued by the national forecaster.
At 12.30pm, there were 30 warnings and watches (an advisory that is less serious than a warning) in place. Eight of these were red warnings.
Heavy rain and severely strong winds will continue battering Northland today as Cyclone Gabrielle tracks south.
Heavy rain until at least midnight – including up to 160mm south of Kaikohe – is expected to cause havoc.
Significant flooding and slips could block roads and leave communities isolated, while river conditions could become dangerous.
By the afternoon, the heavy rain is expected to become confined to the south and western parts of Northland. The MetService-issued heavy rain warning for Northland expires at midnight, when the worst of the rain is expected to have passed.
A red strong wind warning runs until 9pm tomorrow when severe southeast gales could reach 130km/h, particularly this evening and tomorrow morning
The gales are expected to bring widespread damage, toppling trees, leaving roads blocked and affecting powerlines causing power outages.
The winds could lift roofs, create hazardous driving conditions for motorists and endanger lives with flying debris and falling trees and branches.
Most of Fire and Emergency Northland’s callouts overnight had been for fallen trees and downed power lines. Calls also came in about roofs lifting and sheds being blown down.
The wind and rain is expected to start picking up again in Auckland soon and continue until tomorrow morning. The worst of the bad weather in Auckland is expected tonight and early tomorrow morning.
Strong winds – including gusts up to 130km/h in exposed places – will continue until tomorrow night. Widespread damage is expected from the wind, especially to trees and powerlines. Roads could be blocked, communities could be isolated, and roofs could lift up. Flying debris and falling trees and branches could endanger lives.
A heavy rain warning is in place until 4am on Tuesday, but this could be updated by the forecaster depending on the path of the cyclone. Aucklanders can expect a further 150mm to 200mm of rain on top of what has already fallen, and up to 250mm from the Whangaparaoa Peninsula northwards.
Most of this rain is likely to hit Auckland today.
The deluge’s peak intensity is expected to be 10mm/h to 15mm/h but could reach 40mm/h this afternoon and evening.
The Coromandel region is already being battered by strong winds and heavy rain.
MetService’s Alywn Bakker said winds were gusting 120km/h in many places. The weather will stay consistently bad overnight and through to tomorrow morning.
“It could get a bit worse, but it’s already pretty bad,” Bakker said.
“It’s going to stay bad.”
A red heavy rain warning expires tomorrow at 6am. Before then, up to 320mm of rain is expected to fall about the ranges and 150mm about the coast.
Significant flooding is expected over this warning period while slips and floodwaters could disrupt travel and make some roads impassable. Some communities could be cut off.
A strong wind warning is in place until 9am tomorrow. Gusts could reach 130km/h and produce widespread damage, especially to trees and powerlines. As a result, roads could be closed and households forced to go without power.
Conditions will be hazardous for motorists and there could be a threat to life with flying debris and branches.
MetService has forecasted heavy rain and strong easterlies for Gisborne that reach gale-strength this morning with 100km/h gusts.
The heavy rain is expected to continue until 4am on Tuesday, with MetService issuing a red heavy rain warning for this period.
Up to 450mm of rain could soak the region with a peak intensity of 40mm/h from this afternoon.
An orange heavy rain warning has been issued for Hawke’s Bay. MetService said the cyclone is not expected to track that far down the country and – at this stage – veer off near the East Coast and eastwards over the ocean.
Up to 350mm could fall around the ranges, up to 400mm in the Ruahine Range and up to 150mm elsewhere.
This could cause streams and rivers to rise rapidly while slips and surface flooding are also possible.
MetService-issued weather warnings and watches for Cyclone Gabrielle cover the entire North Island, including the wider Wellington region.
On the Wairarapa coast, waves will rise to 6m north of Flat Point tonight and to 7m on Tuesday morning. Up to 180mm of rain about the ranges and eastern hills, and up to 120mm in lower-lying areas, is expected with the heavy rain warning in force from 11pm tonight until 3pm tomorrow.
The circumstances around the death are being treated as unexplained.