Cyclone Gabrielle: Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence review explains how it ‘overwhelmed’ officials

Concerned residents who rang Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence Emergency Management in the days before Cyclone Gabrielle flooded the region were told they were “over-reacting”, or that plans were well in hand.

But an independent review by Mike Bush into the response into the February 14 disaster that killed eight and left thousands displaced has found the organisation was anything but ready.

In fact, the “severity, speed and scale” of the disaster simply “overwhelmed the officials” tasked with disaster response in the region.

Bush told the Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence Emergency Management Joint Committee in Napier on Monday that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit for purpose, and “sets up good people to fail”.

The former police commissioner said the review was not a “blame-apportioning exercise” but his 117-page report contains nine tier-one recommendations for officials and a further 66 tier-two recommendations.

Bush spoke to the joint committee in Napier on Monday, ahead of the review being officially received.

He said the exercise was “very much how do we understand the systems and what worked well and how do we improve for the future”.

It included a lack of “situational awareness”, yet wasn’t just a regional issue.

“The national emergency management system is not [fit] for purpose,” Bush said.

“It sets up good people to fail.

“What did not work so well was it was absolutely clear that the severity, speed and scale of the disaster quite simply overwhelmed the officials involved in the response.

“We need more clarity around how we bring all these agencies [involved in emergency response] together. Without that, you don’t get the co-ordinated response that our communities deserve.”

‘Confident’ they had made appropriate preparations

The report said authorities in Hawke’s Bay “felt confident” that they had made appropriate preparations. Public warnings and information about how to prepare had been posted on Facebook.

Emergency management personnel, senior leaders, mayors and partner agencies across the region had met to plan their response.

“The accountable members of the Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence and Emergency Management Group Joint Committee had asked probing questions and been given assurances of readiness by their emergency management teams,” the report said.

“Orange weather warnings from MetService applied to the region. Hawke’s Bay Regional Council modellers felt that, while the forecast 300-400mm of rain would test flood protection and drainage schemes, river flows were unlikely to rise beyond the one in 50 and one in a hundred-year return periods on which their design had been based.”

Mike Bush, who was appointed to head the independent review, speaks in Napier. Photo / Warren Buckland

“Even when the weather warning moved to red on Monday, emergency management staff were reassured that MetService predictions of rainfall quantums remained unchanged.

“And when some members of the public, including mana whenua with deep knowledge of the behaviour of the region’s waterways, phoned emergency management authorities with concerns about observable river levels, forestry slash or river maintenance, they were told they were ‘overreacting’ or that plans were well in hand.

“However, during the late evening of Monday 13th February 2023 and the early hours of Tuesday 14th, rain and winds intensified in the Hawke’s Bay ranges and across the Heretaunga flood plains to unprecedented levels.”

“Drainage systems were overtaken, stopbanks were breached or compromised. River flow telemetry failed as electrical substations were damaged, and some rain gauges stopped working for a period while others were subject to such high winds that they under-reported rainfall levels.

“The combined effects of silt from landslides, high rainfall and forestry byproducts led to rivers breaching their banks, with silt covering crops and filling homes.

“Critical infrastructure - roads, electricity, fibre, bridges, businesses - was inundated, damaged or destroyed. During this critical period, lives were lost, livelihoods ruined, communities were cut off and thousands of people across the region were traumatised, required rescue and were displaced.“

‘Simply overwhelmed’

Bush said communications failures, lack of data and the speed, severity and extent of this event overwhelmed staff in the Group Emergency Co-ordination Centre.

“They, and their partners in the other territorial authority Emergency Operations Centres [EOCs] did some brave and innovative things.

“They also had significant blind spots and made some mistakes. But above all, they were simply overwhelmed.”

Leaders respond

Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence Emergency Management Joint Committee chair, Hinewai Ormsby, said what was needed was not “tinkering” with the system but “an overhaul”.

“We need to make improvements to the system so it does not happen again. That is what we have undergone to do to find those gaps, to make those improvements, and we can’t do it alone. We need recommendations that come from a national level as well for a system change,” Ormsby said.

Wairoa Mayor Craig Little said the region should look forward.

“We need to make sure that we are pushing all the agencies to get them into a better place than they were before the cyclone,” he said. ”There is no silver bullet in the report, we do need a complete overhaul,” Little said.

Napier Mayor Kirsten Wise said changes would need to be made “not just here in Hawke’s Bay but across the whole country”.

Napier Mayor Kirsten Wise (right) said changes would need to be implemented nationally. Photo / Warren Buckland

Flood victim not impressed

Pākōwhai resident Geoff Downer said the “number one” thing he wanted to see was a change to the emergency alert system for future disasters.

Downer said he was disappointed the key recommendations in the report did not go into more detail about improving that alert system, which failed in the cyclone.

“One would think that the very first thing - even if nothing else comes out of this - is fixing the alert system.”

Downer said it should not rely on electricity or telecommunication networks, which can go down in a natural disaster.

“Put up a helicopter with a loud hailer. It’s a simple fix.”

He said given the enormity of the disaster, including loss of life, he believed there should have been more accountability as a result of the review.

He said his partner received a Civil Defence alert to evacuate when it was far too late to leave.

“The fact that we could have had five hours’ notice, and no-one told us, has been our bugbear since day one.”

They sat on chairs above the kitchen bench as water filled their house, and Downer’s son was on the roof. They were eventually rescued on jet skis.

He said during the review process he felt Mike Bush was “a hard-hitting sort of a guy” and would not hold back but, in his opinion, he felt the final report did “hold back”.

Cyclone Gabrielle tore through Hawke’s Bay late on February 13 and early on February 14 last year, killing eight people and destroying or damaging over 1000 homes. One person remains missing.

Many communities were cut off following the flooding, with significant destruction caused to the region’s roads and bridges.

The highly anticipated review into Hawke's Bay Civil Defence's response to Cyclone Gabrielle has been released. Photo / NZME

Some residents did not receive a Civil Defence warning to evacuate until it was far too late - including cases in Esk Valley where residents received an alert while on the roof or huddled in their ceiling.

Bush was appointed to head the independent review, which began in August.

The Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence Emergency Management Group Joint Committee commissioned that review. The committee is made up of the region’s four mayors plus the regional council chairwoman.

The scope of the review was to assess the operational performance of Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence Emergency Management Group’s immediate response to the cyclone, with a particular emphasis on the systems and processes and roles and responsibilities of group members and partners.

The report is one of numerous reviews, including the council’s separate Independent Flood Review (Pae Matawae Parawhenua), investigating circumstances and factors leading to the flooding, and the Government Inquiry into the Response to the North Island Severe Weather Events, led by former Governor-General Sir Jerry Mateparae.

The review received over 1000 submissions from across the region.

Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence Emergency Management Group controller Ian Macdonald was contacted for comment but declined and referred Hawke’s Bay Today to the joint committee.

For the full report, and all 75 recommendations by Mike Bush, visit the HB Civil Defence website.