Flooding in Eskdale, Napier due to Cyclone Gabrielle on the morning of February 14, 2023. Photo / Valley D Vine Restaurant via Facebook
Flooding in Eskdale, Napier due to Cyclone Gabrielle on the morning of February 14, 2023. Photo / Valley D Vine Restaurant via Facebook
EDITORIAL
New Zealand was warned for days about the approach of Cyclone Gabrielle and yet Hawke’s Bay was not prepared for what struck.
On February 9, states of emergency already covering Auckland and the Coromandel as a result of the Auckland and Northland Anniversary Weekend floods were extended in anticipationof Gabrielle.
On February 10, Minister for Emergency Management Kieran McAnulty issued a press release urging people to prepare for Cyclone Gabrielle, stating “likely to be a severe weather event impacting communities in Northland, Auckland, Coromandel, northern and eastern Waikato, Bay of Plenty and Gisborne”. While the release did not mention Hawke’s Bay, it did include a link to follow for updates in the region.
The first of a swathe of MetService red warnings for wind and rain associated with Cyclone Gabrielle was issued on the afternoon of February 11, but again did not include Hawke’s Bay.
On the afternoon of Monday, February 13, MetService upgraded the heavy rain warning for Hawke’s Bay to red for the period of 24 hours from 10am that day until 7am the following morning. It forecast 250 to 350mm of rain in the ranges and the eastern hills south of Napier, possibly up to 400mm in the Ruahine Range.
“This rain is expected to cause dangerous river conditions and significant flooding. Slips and floodwaters are likely to disrupt travel, making some roads impassable and possibly isolating communities.”
By this time, the heavens had already opened over the headlands west of Hawke’s Bay.
Cyclone Gabrielle flooding damage alongside SH5 in Esk Valley, Hawke's Bay. Photo / Neil Reid
Elevated stations in the ranges recorded massive rainfall with Pukeorapa in the Kaweka Rangereceiving 337.5mm. Napier Airport recorded 203.8mm and Hastings recorded 143.8mm. The sole higher rainfall was at The Pinnacles Station in Coromandel where 447mm was recorded. Wind gusts were recorded up to 90km/h with exposed stations near the East Coast reaching higher, such as Cape Kidnappers at 131km/h.
At 8.30pm, the Hawke’s Bay Civil Defence Emergency Management Group - at the link suggested by Minister McAnulty - posted on Facebook that it would be “keeping a close eye on the developing situation with the weather overnight”.
The South Pacific can expect on average about nine tropical cyclones a year but there are exceptions. Of this nine, on average usually one affects Aotearoa New Zealand. There have been years with more than that – as has happened in the past two months with cyclones Hale and now Gabrielle.
We are currently in a La Niña phase, conducive to tropical cyclones forming in and around the Coral Sea near Vanuatu and New Caledonia. This is a breeding ground for many of the cyclones that, historically, have impacted New Zealand.
Climate scientists believe the number of ex-tropical cyclones affecting New Zealand might remain about the same or perhaps even decline but it’s expected they will become more severe as the planet continues to warm. That will mean tropical cyclones will be of a higher category, bringing stronger winds, heavier rain, and more problems from wind damage, flooding, and storm surge.
We have to get better at alerting people of impending disasters.
