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Home / New Zealand

CRITICAL ISSUES: An economy in the balance

26 Mar, 2002 01:21 AM3 mins to read

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This is election year. It is fitting that in our first State of the Nation examination - Business 2002 - the Herald should cast a searching light on critical issues facing the New Zealand economy.

Government polling shows many New Zealanders are content with their Third Way diet.

But there is a considerable gap between rhetoric and reality.

It is a gap which politicians and business people must bridge to secure the long-term future.

Finance Minister Michael Cullen is basking in economic indicators which are "stronger and more balanced" than they have been since the mid-1990s.

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New Zealand's balance of payments deficit has fallen to about 3.5 per cent of GDP down from the alarming 8 per cent levels it reached before the New Zealand dollar collapsed, unemployment at 5.4 per cent is close to a 13-year low and employment growth is strong.

The New Zealand economy is expected to swing along steadily this year.

Confidence is positive and fears of the US recession spilling over to clobber global growth have dissipated.

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US President George Bush has taken a protectionist approach - swinging buckets of money into the pockets of his country's dying steel industry, failing airlines and subsidising farmers.

But overshadowing the United State's faster-than-expected recoveries in profits and capital spending are the wild card factors.

Strategic What Ifs? Such as the effect on international oil supplies if Bush launches an attack on Iraq's Saddam Hussein.

Lifting New Zealand's performance in the vital Knowledge Economy is a keen preoccupation. Business thinks the Government is moving too slowly.

Government thinks business does not take account of all the vital public policy parameters.

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Weighing heavily on business minds is the prospect that the Labour Government - riding high in the opinion polls - might use its seemingly unassailable position to increase personal income taxes in a second parliamentary term to fund increased expenditure on health and education. Lobby groups have a lengthy list of "anti-business policies" they want the Government to address.

There are other risk factors that can quickly change the dynamics of an economy and the balance sheets of both Governments and companies alike: a biosecurity scare, a Wellington earthquake - factors which are top of international risk assessors' minds.

For several New Zealand's chief executives, 2002 is also crunch time.

This is the year in which their shareholders will look to them to realise their promise - personally and for the companies they head.

Young thrusters such as Fonterra CEO Craig Norgate, Telecom's Theresa Gattung, Carter Holt Harvey's Chris Liddell and The Warehouse's Greg Muir have all been intimately involved in "partnering" with the Government to drive growth policies for New Zealand.

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They have chosen to build their careers locally instead of heading off to lucrative international pastures.

Between them these chief executives command companies equivalent to more than half the market capitalisation of the New Zealand Stock Exchange.

How they play their hands will also affect performance.

Our special report team:

Fran O'Sullivan

Colin James

Jim Eagles

Simon Collins

Brian Gaynor

Daniel Riordan

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Brian Fallow

David McEwen

Peter Griffin

John Armstrong

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