Covid over Christmas: Are we past the peak or are people not reporting?

Covid-19 cases have declined markedly over the holiday period but an expert believes this may be partly due to under-reporting, rather than people not getting sick.

As Kiwis scatter across the country, mixing and mingling at festivals, barbecues and Christmas lunches, Covid remains a persistent unwanted guest.

Reported case numbers began to falling a few weeks ago and University of Auckland senior lecturer Dr David Welch told the Herald there had been a “really rapid drop-off” since then.

Welch said there was a consistent signal suggesting the peak had occurred, with the Tuesday before last being the highest recent reported day.

“Although we may well be past the peak now, I think a lot of people just aren’t reporting.”

Welch said it was hard to rely on case data at this time of year, so hospitalisation numbers, which are next being reported on December 28, are what will reveal if New Zealand is past the peak.

“If people need to go to the hospital, they go to the hospital, whether it’s a holiday or not.”

While the holidays are a time many meet up with relatives and friends, and enjoy large events, he told the Herald it didn’t necessarily mean infections would increase.

“There is a lot of socialising going on, but there’s a lot less of that sort of day-to-day contact that people have in schools or workplaces or that sort of thing. And it’s pretty good weather around the country, people have got their windows and doors open and are spending their time outside.”

However, Welch said one thing to be concerned about was older family members who may be prone to more serious illness.

“We may see a reduction in cases but maybe a pick up in cases in older age groups, which could lead to higher hospitalisations as well.”

One expert believes low case numbers may be partly due to under-reporting, rather than people not getting sick. Photo / Alex Burton

His message to Kiwis was to test before travelling, even if you do not have any symptoms.

The latest Ministry of Health Covid update, released December 19, showed 42,740 cases had been reported in the week prior and 12,809 of those were reinfections. There were 581 people in hospital as of midnight Sunday December 18.