Covid-19: Why this pandemic will burn on years longer

The echoes of the global pandemic are likely to ring on for years longer because governments have failed to tackle it together, finds a major new analysis that raises troubling questions for the climate crisis.

A report just released by the International Science Council – made up of 200 bodies and led by New Zealand's former chief scientist, Professor Sir Peter Gluckman – explored three possible pandemic scenarios over the next five years.

In the most likely of those, by 2027, Covid-19 will have become an endemic disease worldwide – and still be driving seasonal surges requiring updated vaccines and boosters.

Most of the planet's unvaccinated population would still be concentrated in low-income states, where health systems could risk collapse and food security will have worsened.

With recovery efforts spread unevenly between countries – and high-income countries' high vaccine uptake and access to antivirals sparing them from further major waves – the report painted a grim picture of exacerbated inequality across every part of society.

In a yet more pessimistic 2027 scenario, less than 70 per cent of the world's population would be vaccinated – and hard measures like regional lockdowns and work-from-home policies would still be a reality in some countries.

The world still faced damaging social upheaval in the form of long-term school closures and unemployment, while growing nationalism would hinder efforts to vaccinate the world and give rise to further conflict.

Even amid a worsening climate crisis, many countries would move to reverse environmental reforms in attempts to overcome Covid-19's economic impact.

Under the third and most optimistic scenario, global collaboration would have rendered Covid-19 a more manageable disease, and no longer an "acute priority".

Vaccines were spread more equitably across the globe – covering more than 80 per cent of the population – while schools were no longer disrupted and restrictive health measures weren't needed.

By countries working more closely together, a stronger unilateral system had put the world in a better place to tackle other crises – notably famine and climate change.

The report highlighted what the pandemic had already cost – and not only the pain of an estimated 15 million excess deaths over its first two years.

Lost education could result in as much as $17 trillion in reduced earnings over the lifetime of an entire generation of students and aggravating growing concerns about mental health.

In 2020 alone, more than 8 per cent of working hours were lost - equivalent to 255 million full-time jobs.

This has also contributed to a mental health crisis with a recent study covering 204 countries and territories, estimating that the pandemic had led to an additional 53.2 million cases of major depressive disorder and an additional 76.2 million cases of anxiety disorder.

Added to that was the enormous scale of post-infection health problems: long Covid and its wide range of symptoms could accompany more than 10 per cent of all infections, of which half a billion have been confirmed.

"It's fair to say that it'd be very foolish of governments within the multilateral system to see this pandemic as a single, exceptional event," Professor Sir Peter Gluckman says. Photo / Brett Phibbs

Gluckman – who worked on the 110-page report alongside other notable Kiwi experts, Professor Sir David Skegg among them – told the Herald the pandemic should be a lesson to the international community.

By failing to work together and effectively coordinate with the scientific community, it likely missed an opportunity to minimise the pandemic's long-term impacts.

The global north, for instance, failed to leverage science that the south used to curb Covid-19 – and high-income countries, New Zealand included, were exposed by their complacency in preparing only for a flu pandemic.

A 'narrow view'

When Gluckman and colleagues began work on it early last year, he said it was clear that countries had taken a "narrow view" to Covid-19 by treating the pandemic as a public health crisis, rather than one that had much wider implications.

"Right from the outset, it was pretty obvious it had broader impacts – mental health, in particular, is one with long-term consequences – and I still don't think most governments are wanting to acknowledge this crisis has echoes over a wide range of domains."

Further, the report highlighted a need to tackle disinformation, which experts have likened to a parallel, social media-driven pandemic, while strengthening the role of scientific advice in policy-making.

While much of New Zealand's success against Covid-19 to date was owed to science-informed policy, Gluckman said it wasn't clear we've kept in step with the evidence over more recent times.

"And I think the inputs have seemed to be relatively narrow, as the broader social and economic dimensions have come into play."

As the report stressed, national and global policy considerations needed to address widening global inequalities not only in vaccine distribution, but also in inclusive governance, economic recovery and the digital and educational divide.

Here, Gluckman said there were obvious parallels with climate change: a mega-problem that was happening on a slower time scale, but which posed even greater consequences for the planet.

"It's fair to say that it'd be very foolish of governments within the multilateral system to see this pandemic as a single, exceptional event," he said.

"The lessons from this apply to every existential crisis that [the world] will see."

Otago University epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker – who was instrumental in New Zealand's elimination strategy – described the report as "sobering and hopeful".

"This report comes at a time of growing evidence that the pandemic is far from over.

"The Covid-19 virus is continuing to evolve rapidly to escape immune protection and increase rates of reinfection, resulting in further waves of infection across the globe.

"It is leaving a high burden of hospitalisations, deaths, chronic illness and social and economic damage. The virus also has potential to become more virulent over time."

Baker said the report acknowledged the difficulty of improving pandemic management at a multilateral level – and while many drivers of change were already known, these still weren't being highly prioritised by most governments.

By 2027, Covid-19 will have become an endemic disease worldwide - and still be driving seasonal surges requiring updated vaccines and boosters, a new report forecasts. Photo / 123RF

Notably, he added, it came a year after a major report by the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, co-chaired by former prime minister Helen Clark, which called for similar changes – yet little progress had been made.

Otago University sustainability expert Associate Professor Sara Walto echoed Gluckman's climate crisis contrasts.

"If we do not learn from Covid-19 and move forward in these ways then the impacts from climate change will be felt even more severely than Covid-19 impacts across all aspects of society as we know it," she said.

"Without changing our current trajectory it is predicted that as a global society we will be 10 years behind the UN's Sustainable Development Goals.

"We do not have 10 years to wait for action on climate change without the impacts being catastrophic for our future generations."