A scientist's own placard sits alongside signs left outside Hawke's Bay Hospital by anti-mandate group Voices for Freedom, which has spread misinformation. Photo / Warren Buckland
A scientist's own placard sits alongside signs left outside Hawke's Bay Hospital by anti-mandate group Voices for Freedom, which has spread misinformation. Photo / Warren Buckland
It's beyond precedent – but the occupation besieging Wellington's parliamentary precinct doesn't point to any public falling-out with our experts, the country's top science adviser says.
New Zealand has been globally lauded for its successful, science-led pandemic response – much of which has relied on public trust in evidence and Government.
One international study, published last year, found nations with higher levels of trust in scientists enjoyed better support for Covid-19 measures, and New Zealand topped the 12 countries - the US, UK and Australia among them - that it surveyed.
Whether that trust was just as high now was unclear – researchers have been collecting longitudinal survey data, but haven't yet analysed it.
But the Prime Minister's chief science adviser told the Herald she didn't see any major signs that our faith in experts was waning.
Rather, there could simply be an issue with pandemic fatigue: one poll last week suggested three in 10 Kiwis opposed the mandate policy, and supported the Wellington protest.
"Covid fatigue is definitely a challenge, but my sense is that patience is fraying, rather than trust in science," Professor Dame Juliet Gerrard said.
However, she said the fact Kiwis were busy getting boosted and continuing to wear masks suggested people were, for the most part, sticking to the plan.
As at Saturday, 95 per cent of the eligible population over 12 had received at least two doses – while more than two-thirds have received their booster.
A new survey by Research New Zealand also found half or more respondents had also stopped attending events or eating out at restaurants and cafes – environments scientists have said do come with higher risk of transmission.
"And the really high vaccination rates mean that people can be much more relaxed when going about their daily lives, which arguably reflects more general trust in the science and public health measures, rather than less."
She said the high coverage rate would also help protect the country from worst-case scenarios.
"And as more people are boosted or exposed to the virus, the risk of severe outcomes continues to diminish, so restrictions can relax, which hopefully eases the Covid fatigue."
Victoria University psychology researcher Professor Marc Wilson pointed to a 2020 paper that found Kiwis' trust in science was greater 18 days into the first national lockdown than it was prior.
"However, what we have seen in research on other pandemics is that the longer the pandemic went on, the more erosion of trust was seen," he said.
"At the same time, we're not talking a lack of trust, but rather a decrease in the overall levels of trust that are typical most of the time.
"This was accompanied by ennui at following Government and expert advice on how to mitigate the impacts of those diseases. As a result, I think it's a legitimate concern for us to hold here."
Prime Minister's chief science adviser Dame Professor Juliet Gerrard. Photo / Greg Bowker
Still, like Gerrard, he didn't feel that falling trust was happening right now.
"A more nuanced answer is that it's more complicated than a simple yes or no."
A recent survey by Pew reported that Amercians' belief that scientists could be trusted to work in the best interests of the public had declined since the start of the pandemic.
However, Wilson added, the longer-term picture was that more than 70 per cent of Americans had consistently agreed the benefits of science outweighed any potential harms.
"Pew also qualified this apparent decrease by noting that trust in science had increased leading up to the pandemic," he said.
"It's also the case that Americans have consistently ranked scientists second only to the military for many years."
He said it was worth noting the greatest shift in trust in the US had been observed among Republicans.
"Here in New Zealand, there is also a general or weak tendency for people who describe themselves as politically, socially and economically conservative to report less trust in science," he said.
"I wouldn't be surprised to see that if New Zealanders' trust in science has declined at all it will be most pronounced among the more politically conservative."
Wilson ultimately felt we shouldn't take single examples – like some anti-science sentiment observed at the Wellington protest – to infer a wider trend.
"The concern I have, however, is that anti-science rhetoric invites people into a 'debate' about science, and thanks to the rise of easily available misinformation available, I worry that otherwise sensible people might be captured by the tyranny of the rabbit hole."
Prominent Otago University epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker has been called out by name by the Parliament occupiers, and his picture has featured on anti-mandate billboards attempting to discredit him.
Yet he too hadn't noted any widespread public shift away from the trust in science.
"I get a steady stream of nice emails. But whenever I speak out on any issues, I get the haters contact me. While I'd say they've been increasing in amplitude and frequency, it's not by a vast amount."
Otago University epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker. Photo / Supplied
Baker expected that changing tone may have been partly due to the prolonged Delta outbreak, which also drew an end to the elimination strategy that gave the public a high degree of normalcy.
"There's also quite a marginalised group that's got more organised, more militant, and are importing ideas from overseas," he said.
"But the groups that have been brought together on Parliament's lawns appear to be united by one thing: they feel aggrieved."
The protest also raised complex questions around New Zealand's social fabric – particularly around trust between citizens and the state – something explored in a discussion paper released last year by the University of Auckland's Koi Tū: The Centre for Informed Futures.
"New Zealand is generally seen as a relatively cohesive society, but it is not immune to division, and there are warning signs," said the report's authors, who included Gerrard's predecessor, Professor Sir Peter Gluckman.
"While there is relatively high trust in the institutions of government, the response to the vaccination effort has illustrated that trust is not universal and can be eroded."
To counter this, Baker believed it fell to public health experts to explain "we're doing the 'least bad' ... there's no 'great' choice".
"I think it's also important for us to keep building up an understanding of science so that people are more resilient when they're confronted with disinformation – that they're able to recognise it."
Another of New Zealand's most visible science communicators, microbiologist Associate Professor Siouxsie Wiles, made another critical point: who and how we defined "experts" wasn't always straightforward.
"It's an interesting one, because we do have some experts who are not to be trusted, although they're a small number," she said.
"For me, the really important thing has been to say, this is what my understanding of things are, based on my expertise. And these are what my values are. So, you understand why I'm saying the things that I'm saying," she said.
"There used to be this thing called the 'honest broker', where experts are just supposed to give you the evidence. But actually, you kind of need to understand where they're coming from, or, how has that evidence been gathered?
"So, it's not as simple as saying 'trust experts'. We need high societal levels of trust in everybody, and that everybody is acting in society's best interest. That, to me, is the core of it. In whose interest are you acting?"
She added that, in terms of our pandemic response, experts also didn't need to just be epidemiologists.
University of Auckland microbiologist Associate Professor Siouxsie Wiles. Photo / Natalie Slade
Valuable input had come from psychologists, virologists, vaccinologists, biologists, aerosol scientists and a range of other disciplines.
"Science helped inform a policy response in New Zealand that eliminated the early variants and we were one of the only places that managed to aggressively suppress a Delta outbreak," Gerrard said.
"Any comparison to overseas death tolls points to us having saved thousands of lives in the process."
But Omicron – which just pushed our daily case count to another record of 2552 - posed our toughest challenge yet.
"So it's more important than ever that people understand the reasons behind the restrictions, when it will be safe to loosen them, and why public health measures continue to protect the whole community and the hospitals as we have Omicron circulating widely in the community," she said.
"Everyone benefits if our hospitals have beds free for people when they need them. We are all sick and tired of this virus, but the same science applies whether we are tired or not."
