Changes to our Covid response on the way, new stats on bullying in the police and the latest in who will succeed Boris Johnson as British Prime Minister in the latest New Zealand Herald headlines. Video / NZ Herald
In the midst of what experts are now definitively calling New Zealand's "second wave", discussions are again being had about how to flatten the curve as wastewater testing shows an underreporting of cases.
Four per cent of the 11,464 known community cases reported yesterday were virus reinfections, while hospitalisations continue to increase.
The average number of hospitalisations was 643 - up from 454 this time last week. A further 29 virus-related deaths were reported by health authorities.
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern again ruled out a move back to red but emphasised mask use, vaccination and isolation.
Professor Michael Bunce, the Institute of Environmental Science and Research's principal scientist genomics lead, said wastewater testing for Covid-19 indicates there are many more cases than are being reported daily.
"We agree with the Ministry of Health that there is an under ascertainment of case numbers through the self-reporting of RATs [rapid antigen tests]," Bunce said.
"We don't have a conversion currently to convert the amount of wastewater into the number of cases, which is obviously the metric that most people are familiar with. However, when we are looking at the trends, they are heading north at a rate much faster than you would expect for 11,000 cases."
Professor Michael Bunce said that we have more Covid-19 cases in New Zealand than we are seeing reported. Photo / Curtin University
Bunce also highlighted that the BA.5 variant is now the most dominant Omicron strain with 53 per cent of recorded cases.
This is particularly concerning due to the BA.5 variant's "transmission advantage" as it spreads quicker and more effectively than previous variants.
"There are still so many unknowns, it is difficult to see the size and shape of this wave yet, but we do know it's getting bigger by the day," Bunce told the Herald.
According to University of Otago epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker, the current system we have is "not going to work at the moment" for flattening the second wave.
However, he doesn't believe that the Government moving to a more restrictive setting is going to help.
"The red light doesn't add a huge deal, it limits gathering size which may not have a huge benefit. Small gatherings in pubs across the country, where people take off their masks to have a drink and spend hours there as you do.
"You talk about the three C's - close contact, crowded and confined. It's not well ventilated, people have close contact and there are lots of people in there."
He highlights mask use as our most effective tool currently.
"We just need to have absolutely mandated mask use. We've already got it on public transport, which is good, but we need to extend the mask mandates to all of these indoor environments, everywhere. That could almost stop the pandemic," Baker said.
Otago University epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker said mask use is our best tool right now. Photo / Supplied by Otago University
Today, Covid-19 Response Minister Ayesha Verrall will set out further steps in the country's pandemic response.
It is understood that no changes to the current mask rules and isolation periods for the orange setting are expected, but free masks and rapid antigen tests are expected to be easier to acquire amid concerns people are simply not testing and so are spreading the virus.
Steps to try to increase the uptake of boosters – and the fourth vaccination for those aged over 50 – are also expected.
"They are the most important things we can be doing right now, far and away above the extra measure which is gathering limits which in this environment will not have the same impact," Ardern said.
