Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins has indicated a move to the orange traffic light setting would happen once the whole country has peaked in the outbreak.
Te Pūnaha Matatini Covid-19 modeller Professor Michael Plank believes if current trends continue, Auckland could move to orange sooner than people think.
Increasing the indoor gathering limit from 100 to 200 might not lead to a significant increase in transmission, according to Plank.
"I don't think it's a big change. And it can sort of feel like death by 1000 cuts, constantly sort of tweaking a restriction here and relaxing a restriction there.
"But actually, that's not necessarily a terrible way of going about it because I think that's better than ripping the sticky plaster off. That creates a bigger risk of a rebound or a second peak."
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In orange, there are no limits for indoor or outdoor gatherings and masks are not required outside.
Plank said people may relax their "voluntary restrictions" if and when a region moves into orange, which may prove more important.
However, director general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield said yesterday he would advise against the country moving to orange..
He said all regional hubs would provide input around what they were seeing in the community - including on affected vulnerable groups.
They would look at hospitalisations and what was happening in GP clinics and that would add to the advice to Cabinet about any potential move to orange.
Auckland peaked more than two weeks ago, but Hipkins said cases were still increasing in other parts of the country and defended the country remaining at red.
Bloomfield said numbers were increasing, particularly in the South Island.
Canterbury DHB currently has 18,915 active cases and Southern DHB has 8448.
There are now 118,631 active Covid cases in the community, with Māori having the highest rate at 35 cases per 1000 people.
That is followed by the Pacific rate, which is 28 per 1000. Pacific was once the highest but that had now dropped, Bloomfield said.
In the seven days to March 20, across all ethnicities, there were 24 new cases per 1000 people in the country, compared with 27 per 1000 the week before - but the pattern varied across the country.
The breakdown of people in hospital with Covid-19 across the country are: Northland, 22; North Shore, 148; Middlemore, 207; Auckland, 159; Waikato, 82; Bay of Plenty, 39; Lakes, 16; Tairāwhiti, 4; Hawke's Bay, 40; Taranaki, 16; Whanganui, 3; MidCentral, 23; Hutt Valley, 17; Capital and Coast, 43; Wairarapa, 7; Nelson Marlborough, 11; Canterbury, 51; South Canterbury, 3; Southern, 22.
