Covid 19 Omicron outbreak editorial: What rhymes with orange?

EDITORIAL:

It used to be said that nothing rhymes with orange. Right now, there's nothing New Zealand can do to get into a rhythm with an orange traffic light setting.

Once the city was led to believe vaccinations were the key. This resulted in one of the most successful vaccination efforts the world has seen.

Then Delta struck and Auckland endured 107 days fully locked down while watching restrictions eased across the rest of the country.

With Omicron past its peak in most places, the decline in daily case numbers is now there for all to see. We have a sharp descent in new infections. Yet we remain idling at a red traffic light.

The "team of five million" has been advised at various times to consider one set of data ahead of others. The seven-day rolling average of community cases was introduced to give us a broader perspective. This too continues to decline.

So is the Government concerned about a double hump, a renewed surge in cases? Even if so, Epidemiologist Michael Baker says relaxing public health controls measures is most likely to lead to a "gentle second peak". Covid modeller Michael Plank backs a cautious approach but admits moving to orange might not even cause a second wave and only increase case numbers "a little".

The next opportunity for change is at a Cabinet review on April 14, the day before Easter.

So, what is needed to change the traffic light?

Director general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield, who yesterday announced he will be stepping down in July, says high hospitalisations are among the reasons to keep the country in the red traffic light setting. He notes there are still several thousand daily cases in Auckland and hospitalisation is still high. There is still a "long tail" of hospitalisations and Auckland is part of a national hospital network, he said. Yet hospitalisation rates are tracking down across all district health boards.

Bloomfield now says it is important to protect Auckland's healthcare system, partly because the city has some of the country's most specialised health services.

The main difference between the red and orange settings is the 200-people limit on inside gatherings. This will improve the chances of some hospitality and entertainment providers making it through the year but affects the big picture, not a lot.

Moving to orange would, however, send a clear signal to the city, the country, and the world that New Zealand is opening up for business.

While Omicron proved too infectious for any territory in the world, New Zealanders vanquished Delta by taking individual responsibility. What the vaccination effort showed was that good primary care is effective when resourced and given the chance to lead.

The vast majority have proved capable of doing the right thing, so when will this be recognised?

Taking some literary licence, words that rhyme with orange are "hinge" and "impinge". Right now, all we can do is "cringe" and wait for Easter.