Covid 19 Omicron outbreak editorial: How high will our next peak bounce?

Masks are still required on public transport and there is no 'exit' from the Omicron outbreak coming into view. Photo / Michael Craig

EDITORIAL

Twin Peaks was a cult television series, back before the world of streaming and on-demand services, in which the plotlines stretched the unexpected to previously unseen absurdities.

Covid-19 has now visited New Zealand with a pair of summits and little to hint at what may happen next.

Despite Delta being vanquished, the Omicron variant swarmed over in two defined peaks since it began rising sharply in the second week of February.

The graphic rendering of daily new Covid-19 community cases illustrates the pattern as New Zealand peaked with a seven-day average on March 12 with 19,962. The next and most recent peak was 9877 on July 11.

Despite numbers tracking down, it is not "over". Otago University epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker said it was positive that we might be seeing the end of this wave but it does not mean we are seeing the end of Covid in New Zealand just yet.

"We are definitely not out of the woods at all with this virus because it is still having a major health impact on New Zealand," he said.

"What happens next is really hard to know. We could see if numbers continue to go down to these low levels, that this becomes endemic, however, we can only give it that name when it becomes predictable, which Covid is far from as it continues to develop variants and sub-variants."

What we do know, however, is that we have the collective ability to influence what happens next. We should be well-drilled with precautionary measures, be up to date with vaccinations, wear masks when gathering indoors and stay home and test when feeling unwell.

Despite New Zealand's second peak being lower than the first, there is no guarantee the next wave will be lower again. England's second wave of Omicron was higher than the first, and a third is still climbing.

Dr Stephen Kissler, an epidemiologist at Harvard, and colleagues published a highly influential paper in April 2020 that predicted seasonal resurgences of Covid "could occur as far into the future as 2025". Many other experts now share the expectation that Covid variants will be seasonal for years to come. Combined with ills such as flu and colds, health services are under pressure and need to prioritise other procedures and treatments.

The latest figures reported by Statistics New Zealand have just over 30,000 active cases and Omicron is not "mild". The second peak of cases in hospitals is an even steeper trend than community cases.

The Ministry of Health yesterday reported 21 virus-related deaths. New Zealand recorded its worst week for deaths in July with 903 people dying, nearly a quarter having contracted Covid within 28 days of their death.

Baker estimates about 180 new cases arrive in New Zealand each day. Any of these could be a new variant.

Our collective fate lies in individual responsibility. Twin Peaks ran for a third season but we do not have to accept that with Covid.