NZ has just passed a million Covid cases but University of Auckland Senior Lecturer Dr David Welch says the real number of infections could be more than double. Video / NZ Herald
Covid-19 cases have risen in Auckland for three weeks, with the city's three district health boards posting increased infection numbers after dipping from their peak of the Omicron outbreak.
The increase in our biggest city comes as case numbers in other parts of the country are plateauing, an expert says.
There were 9173 community cases reported today, 385 hospitalisations including 13 people in intensive care, and a further 14 Covid-related deaths.
Cases peaked in Auckland on March 4 when 13,252 new infections were reported. The seven-day moving average of cases peaked the next day, Baker said.
Cases then declined to the seven-day moving average low point on April 19 of 1569. Since then, the moving average has risen 50 per cent to 2390 today.
Figures collated from the Herald show the seven-day average of cases has tracked up across all DHBs since mid-to-late April.
The moving average of cases in Auckland's Waitematā DHB area as of May 9 (999) is around the same level as it was on March 31 (990). Average cases dipped to around 614 on April 18.
In Counties Manukau, average Covid cases are now 704 - around the same level as April 5 - after dipping to around 462 on April 18.
The seven-day average of cases on May 9 in Auckland DHB was 822, similar to the rate on March 28 (813).
University of Otago epidemiologist Michael Baker said the tick-up of cases in Auckland was a "gentle increase" over three weeks compared to the "very dramatic rise" in cases when Omicron first arrived in New Zealand.
"Auckland is important because it is more than a third of the population and it was also the place that had the earliest peak so that's probably going to give an indication of what we'd see around the rest of the country eventually."
Meanwhile, rates were also plateauing in other parts of the country, especially places that peaked early, such as Capital & Coast and Waikato, Baker said.
Covid-19 case numbers were not expected to stay flat as there were a number of factors pushing them up, Baker said.
Those factors included the increasing prevalence of more infectious variants that were expected over time, waning immunity, the relaxation of controls and winter.
"All of those factors are basically favouring more cases at the moment."
Otago University epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker. Photo / Supplied
The locations of today's community cases are Northland (265), Auckland (2945), Waikato (625), Bay of Plenty (254), Lakes (175), Hawke's Bay (274), MidCentral (348), Whanganui (97), Taranaki (255), Tairāwhiti (75), Wairarapa (105), Capital and Coast (600), Hutt Valley (264), Nelson Marlborough (339), Canterbury (1397), South Canterbury (164), Southern (889) and the West Coast (98).
The locations of four cases were unknown. In addition, 78 cases were detected at the border.
The University of Auckland senior lecturer and principal investigator at Te Pūnaha Matatini, Dr Dion O'Neale, said increasing case numbers could indicate people were interacting more with others and taking fewer precautions.
"A change in behaviours can help bring cases back down if people respond.
"With all the caveats around it, you don't know you're going up [in terms of case numbers] until it's sort of too late. You're seeing the change in behaviour that happened a week or two ago [now]".
Today's national seven-day rolling average is 7927 while last Tuesday it was 7943.
The deaths reported today took the total number of publicly reported deaths with Covid-19 to 876. The seven-day rolling average of reported deaths is 14.
The Ministry of Health said six of the people whose deaths were reported today were in their 70s, three were in their 80s and five were aged over 90.
One person was from Northland, two from Auckland, one from Waikato, one from MidCentral, one from Hawke's Bay, one from the Wellington region, six from Canterbury and one from the Southern region.
