Covid-19 modellers are cautiously endorsing the move to level 2 in Auckland on Sunday. Photo / Alex Burton
Covid-19 modellers are cautiously endorsing the move to level 2 in Auckland on Sunday. Photo / Alex Burton
Covid-19 modellers are backing the Government's call to move Auckland out of lockdown on Sunday - but warn there's still much to be vigilant about.
Auckland will move to alert level 2 at 6am on Sunday - a setting that would be reviewed the following weekend - while the rest of New Zealand would move to alert level 1.
There had been no new cases for five days in a row which was "good news", Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said.
"It is still not business as usual," Ardern added, urging people to keep social distancing.
Scientists who have been modelling Auckland's risk over the past few weeks echoed those comments today.
"The decision to move Auckland to alert level 2 on Sunday makes sense given the string of negative test results we have seen this week," Professor Shaun Hendy said.
"We can have a good deal of confidence that this cluster is well contained," he said.
"This does not mean that there is no risk of further cases and these could still spark a larger outbreak if not detected early."
With the 14-day incubation period, there was still a risk that people who were exposed last week could develop Covid-19 - even if they tested negative this week.
"It will be important that people are vigilant around the country, avoiding school, work or social gatherings if they develop any symptoms," Hendy said.
"This is particularly important for any Aucklanders who travel out of the region in the days after Sunday - they can help reduce the risks by continuing to behave as if they were in alert level 2.
"A large B.1.1.7 cluster would be very hard to contain, so we all need to do our bit to ensure that we catch any further cases swiftly."
Fellow Te Punaha Matatini modeller and Canterbury University mathematician Professor Michael Plank said level 2 was the "right place for Auckland to be".
"Obviously we've had five days now with no new cases, which is really good news - and most of those close contacts have been tested now," he said.
"So I think it's good Auckland will still have a period of time at level 2 because we know that, although we've had a run of days with no cases, the virus does have a long tail, and new cases could still pop up over the next week or so.
"Level 2, I think, sends a message that we're not completely out of the woods yet.
"It's cautious and it mitigates some of the risk, like that which comes from super-spreading events, or large gatherings."
The Ministry of Health said there was still a strong demand for testing with more than 11,500 tests processed yesterday.
