Short-term help for small and medium-sized businesses must be generous. Photo / Michael Craig
Short-term help for small and medium-sized businesses must be generous. Photo / Michael Craig
COMMENT:
Was ever a Budget so hotly anticipated? We're getting our freedom back, more or less, from Thursday, but we're still waiting to learn what our lives might be like. Thursday will be such a big day.
It's like we've been in a walled city under siege, being ingeniously resourcefuland kind beyond measure, waiting for an army to come and rescue us.
Will they ride in wearing flowers in their hair, throwing restaurant vouchers and cash to the crowds? Or will they wear steel-capped boots and scowls, brandishing their weapons to chase us back indoors?
How brutal will the "recovery" be? Much of the pre-Budget commentary has focused on the financial help wanted by businesses, employees and those out of work. Who should get the money and how much?
Those questions are vital, no question. In a speech last week, Finance Minister Grant Robertson talked about "a targeted and balanced approach to recovery for viable businesses", with "interventions to sustain households and businesses and get people working", along with regulatory reform "to help speed up the recovery".
But Robertson has larger horizons than mere fiscal stimulus. In that same speech he said: "Too many children are growing up without the basics, housing has been too expensive, many of our waterways are still not swimmable, our emissions have been rising, people are working harder but don't feel they are getting ahead."
Then he said: "There are few times in life when the clock is reset. Now is the time we should address these long-term issues." He called the opportunity "a privilege" that "we should not squander".
He's right, and it seems fair to judge his Budget against that speech. A new beginning, or just fancy words? Here's a 10-point checklist, taken mainly from his own promises.
1. Small businesses gotta feel the love
We're in an interim crisis phase, so short-term help for small and medium enterprises must be generous.
The larger question is how they're going to choose who to help. Don't call it "picking winners": it's deciding who needs some help now because they do have a future. The Budget should explain how they're going to do it.
2. What work will we do now?
Training programmes are critical. The Government's role should be to facilitate and fund local communities, iwi, NGOs, councils, corporates and others who can identify new areas of employment, set them up and train people to do the work.
3. Buy local
The more we spend on local businesses, the more our money circulates to help more local businesses. The Government should build a public service campaign to promote it.
4. Welfare without stigma
"Interventions to sustain households" means making welfare fast, flexible and fair: eliminating stand-down periods and other barriers, raising benefit levels.
Now that most of us know we might lose our jobs, perhaps a new understanding of beneficiaries will emerge. Welfare without stigma. And, as economist Shamubeel Eaqub says, a new role for the Ministry for Social Development too: as an usher, not a bouncer.
Regulatory changes can make things easier but they must also preserve safety, rights and environmental values. The regulatory framework could get better out of all this.
Finance Minister Grant Robertson delivering an update during the lockdown. Photo / Mark Mitchell
6. Homes for all
Warm, dry and safe homes are the foundation of a functional society and don't we know it now. The Government's promises of a better tomorrow for everyone will make no sense without an urgent programme to build thousands more social houses.
7. Going green at last
Robertson and almost every other Government minister except Shane Jones has made a point of stressing the environmental opportunities. Labour ministers haven't said what they are yet. The Greens have listed work schemes to restore wetlands and the like, more active transport and the expansion of electric rail for freight and passenger services. All of that should be in the Budget.
8. Don't forget the port!
The proposal to shift the Auckland port is the biggest infrastructure scheme we've ever seen and it seems to have disappeared. If it doesn't form some part of the big project spend now, it may never happen, because there won't be any money left. Given the public debate is far from over, that would be a tragedy.
9. What's it really all about, Grant?
This will be the second iteration of the Wellbeing Budget. Whatever it contains, the changes to the economy will be so great, it's vital that Robertson sets out a coherent vision of where we're headed and does his best to win us to it.
Change is too hard, unless people know what it's for.
10. Will the lawyers go to jail?
Corporate law firms took the Government's free money when they didn't need to and, only when they realised they were the object of public disgust, decided to give it back.
I'm sure none of them will really go to jail: they wouldn't be very good lawyers if they let that happen. But I still have questions, especially as it's unlikely that only lawyers behaved so badly.
Will the Budget include stiffer penalties for those who abuse the system?
And in the larger scheme of things, how will ethical standards evolve? It's as true for corporates as it is for all of us: we've discovered the strength we get from being kind, so what will we do with that knowledge?
