Covid 19 coronavirus: Simon Wilson on the future for One-lane Bridges

National leader Simon Bridges: Job surely safe for now, but how will he respond to the Budget? Photo / Mark Mitchell

When you get sick of the people in your own bubble, no worries, just make a new one with someone else*! It's a good game and I choose Simon Bridges.

It'd be fun. We'd read books and have endless games of Simon Says. He could teach me how to play the drums. We'd plan a cycling tour in the winterless North and he would very graciously put up with One-lane Bridges jokes**. In the evenings, we'd get down to the task of reinventing the entire transport system. I know he wants to.

What's it like, really, being in Bridges' bubble right now? You walk into the caucus room and they're like, "Hey, Simon, social distancing, mate! You stay over there." And all the other MPs socially distance themselves on the other side of the room.

The way some people are talking, Bridges will be available to join my bubble any day now. But such talk is surely premature.

If the National Party caucus is going to roll him, it'll be just a few weeks before the election. It worked for Jacinda Ardern, promoted to the top job seven weeks out, and almost worked for Mike Moore too. In 1990 he got eight weeks in charge and is credited with halting his party's slide into complete electoral disaster.

A few weeks. Long enough for a barnstorming campaign, not long enough for the adrenalin to run out or voters to discover what you're really like.

Our election is set down for September 19, which makes mid-July the time to watch. But is winter coming for Bridges?

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern: Will National's leader have what it takes to campaign against her battle-hardened skills? Photo / Mark Mitchell

By then, Ardern's world-inspiring leadership on the path to Covid elimination won't be the issue, although it will always matter to many. We'll have moved on. We'll be deciding who we think is best to lead us through the reconstruction.

Unless voters all despise the leader, National will have a reasonable chance of winning that contest. That's because, despite a great deal of evidence to the contrary, many people believe economic management is what National is good at.

There's historic form for dumping a hero after a crisis. The British adored their Conservative wartime leader Winston Churchill, but just two months after the war ended in Europe they voted in a landslide for Clement Attlee and the Labour Party.

The promise of a National Health Service was more attractive to voters than the prospect of watching Tory speculators rack-renting and profiteering off misery.

Will the National Party here offer policies as redolent of hope as the NHS, come September? Will Labour? Finance Minister Grant Robertson's Budget on May 14 will be the evidence for it, and will be every bit as important as Ardern's firm, cautious leadership through the health crisis.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson reading details of his first Covid-19 recovery package in Parliament, March 17. Photo / Mark Mitchell

So will Bridges' response. That's another reason he's safe for now. How Bridges and his finance spokesman Paul Goldsmith respond to the Budget will make or break them both.

To date, Bridges has been busy declaring himself the defender for small business, and that looks like a smart strategy. The sector, especially in hospitality and other retail, has been a big loser from the pandemic plan. With the Australian example to draw on, it wants more financial support and the quick removal of the lockdown.

In a soundbite, people should be able to get a haircut.

"I make no excuses," Bridges said this week, his own hair noticeably thicker than usual. "This has gone on too long."

But what was he really saying? As yet, there's no coherent alternative plan.

The problem for Bridges is that he's naturally inclined to bluster. He startles easily. He says the wrong things and has to blag his way out of it. He's weirdly drawn to Trumpian expressions. It's like he's on one of his one-lane bridges in Northland and here comes a truck and all he can do is panic.

• Covid19.govt.nz: The Government's official Covid-19 advisory website

In normal times, we hardly need much leadership; in a crisis, if the leader panics we're all toast. It's not a policy issue; it's about judgment and character. You can argue it's the only leadership skill that really matters.

Labour has an assured, voter-friendly and battle-hardened leader who has proved, twice over, that she does not panic. If Robertson's Budget offers bold but credible economic plans and social vision, Bridges will struggle.

National leader Simon Bridges: Job surely safe for now, but how will he respond to the Budget? Photo / Mark Mitchell

But if the National caucus dump him, who have they got? The party needs a leader voters like, trust and admire. That makes it hard for Judith Collins. Someone not too much of the old guard, which rules out Paula Bennett. Also, not some grey suit voters have never heard of. Todd Muller or Mark Mitchell, seriously?

And it has to be someone who wants it. That seems to go against Nikki Kaye, but remember this: in 2017 Ardern was also a reluctant candidate for leader. And Kaye knows how to beat Ardern: in her Auckland Central electorate, she's done it twice.

* Don't try this at home, it's not what level 3 really means.

** Thanks to Sir Roger Hall for the joke.