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Home / New Zealand

Covid-19 coronavirus: New Zealand 'currently eliminated' virus. So why are we still seeing new cases?

Emma Russell
By Emma Russell
Multimedia Journalist·NZ Herald·
28 Apr, 2020 07:00 AM5 mins to read

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Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield has been front and centre at the daily Covid-19 briefings.

As New Zealand moves out of lockdown, new cases of Covid-19 are still emerging. The Herald talks to some of the countries top scientists to find out why, after a month of "staying home", cases of the potentially deadly virus continue to crop up.

For the past month, New Zealanders have been ordered to stay home to stop the spread of Covid-19.

As a result, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has declared the virus "currently eliminated" and with that has granted New Zealanders simple freedoms such as ordering takeaways and being able to go for a swim or a surf.

Yet, for the last week, a handful of new cases continue to pop up each day.

Michael Baker, an epidemiologist and public health physician with the University of Otago and a professor in the Department of Public Health, says though our country is well on track to stamping out the virus it may be too early to say we have eliminated it.

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"We cannot say we have eliminated Covid until we have strict criteria for sustained chains of transmission."

READ MORE:
• Covid 19 coronavirus: Three new Covid-19 cases; Ashley Bloomfield's takeaways warning
• Covid 19 coronavirus: NZ not 'out of the woods' - Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern
• Covid 19 coronavirus: PM Jacinda Ardern says virus is 'currently eliminated' as NZ emerges from level 4
• New Zealand makes international headlines after 'eliminating' Covid-19 coronavirus

By that, he means having a rapid response plan in place so that outbreaks can be prevented whenever a new case appears, which includes quick, effective contact tracing and constant randomised testing.

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Asymptomatic spread

Baker says one of the reasons we are still seeing new cases is due to the high number of asymptomatic cases - people who carry the virus but do not have any symptoms.

Michael Baker is an epidemiologist and public health physician with the University of Otago and a Professor in the Department of Public Health. Photo / File
Michael Baker is an epidemiologist and public health physician with the University of Otago and a Professor in the Department of Public Health. Photo / File

"For example, someone who is young and fit could be asymptomatic for 10 days before passing it on to someone else in their bubble, who could also have no symptoms, and so on, until someone catches the virus, who does show symptoms."

He says "we are entering our most dangerous phase yet" as asymptomatic people are potentially coming into contact with more people.

Though infectious disease expert Dr Siouxsie Wiles has a different theory.

She says we haven't seen any asymptomatic cases of Covid-19 but rather pre-symptomatic,"and there's a massive difference".

Infectious disease expert Dr Siouxsie Wiles. Photo / File
Infectious disease expert Dr Siouxsie Wiles. Photo / File

Pre-symptomatic is when a person doesn't show any symptoms within the first few days of contracting the virus - which is when they risk infecting others- but eventually, they do get symptoms, even if mild, and that's often when they are less at risk of passing it on.

For this reason, Wiles says pre-symptomatic cases are unlikely to be the reason we are still seeing new cases.

"We don't have a high number of people who are pre-symptomatic, because if they were transmitting it without knowing then we would see a high number of people needing to be hospitalised.

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"The fact our rates of hospitalisation are really low is helping our understanding that we don't have a large number of people in their bubbles who don't know they have the virus."

Overseas travellers

She says many of the new cases are likely to be people who had arrived in New Zealand from overseas.

If they are following strict quarantine regulations then the risk of them infecting others is low, Wiles says.

"It would be good to get some more information from the Ministry of Health on this, and more detail about the clusters."

Bubble breakers

Wiles says another reason we are likely still seeing new cases is due to people "expanding their bubbles" or "breaking bubbles", which is when clusters often arise.

"I have heard of people who have, for example, decided their definition of a bubble is their whole street because that means they can still have dinner with each other and do activities together."

In the cases she has heard of, Wiles says people have been very fortunate not to get infected.

"The question is how many have done that and not got away with it? For example, imagine if one of those people on the street had been part of a cluster without realising."

Delayed testing

A Taranaki woman tested positive for Covid-19 after arriving in the country more than two weeks ago.

Wiles says the woman delayed getting tested because her symptoms were so mild.

"By the time she did get tested she was no longer infectious but still tested positive because she had small shreds of the virus in her body that weren't in any way damaging."

Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield says the testing of mild symptoms is key to moving down to alert level 2, including a loss of smell or taste.

He says a 12-day delay in getting a test result is unacceptable, but adds that a negative test confirmation might take longer than a positive result.

There still might be undetected cases in New Zealand, and Bloomfield says each DHB is making surveillance plans to test in all regions and demographics, as well as workplaces such as hospitals, aged-care facilities and supermarkets.

Today marks our country's 10th straight day of single-digit coronavirus cases, with just three new cases reported on Tuesday afternoon - and just 239 active cases in total.

Bloomfield is warning people to keep their distance as they rush to buy takeaway coffees and hamburgers.

He says he has enjoyed a takeaway coffee today, but it is important not to congregate outside cafes or in carparks of takeaway places.

"We do not want to see the sorts of rebounds we have seen in other countries."

• Covid19.govt.nz: The Government's official Covid-19 advisory website

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