Ministry deputy secretary Andrea Schollmann said last year, all of New Zealand went into level 4 just before the Term 1 school holidays, so it made sense to bring them forward by two weeks.
"This meant that the impacts of moving the holidays on the plans of family and whānau were reduced. We did not change the term 2 school holidays," she said.
"We are in a different situation this year, and need to consider the impact of moving dates for the whole of New Zealand. The NCEA external assessment changes have been planned around keeping term dates as they are, and parents will already have put in place childcare plans for the October holidays.
"So, while we all know that Covid-19 can change things quickly, we don't expect to need to move the school holidays at this stage."
Cabinet is meeting today to decide on alert level changes. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said last week that Auckland will likely remain in level 4 for another two weeks.
In that scenario, the city will move to level 3 in mid-September; after two more weeks of level 3 it would be close to the end of term.
Northland is also set to stay in level 4 for now but will likely move to level 3 before Auckland. It's not clear how long the rest of the country will remain in level 3 if there is no community transmission.
Stephen Lethbridge, president of the Auckland Primary Principals' Association, said schools had been in discussion with the Ministry about school holidays.
"A resounding call from APPA was don't touch the term dates - that just makes things messy."
It wasn't clear how bringing holidays forward would help the community; and it would make for a very long Term 4, he said.
"Best to keep the status quo. Keep the online learning happening, the remote learning happening, checking in with kids and whānau."
Steve Hargreaves, president of the Auckland Secondary Schools Principals' Association, said there was "no real appetite to shift holidays from what I am hearing".
"Now that NCEA exams have been pushed back there is no real need."
NZ Principals' Federation president Perry Rush agreed, saying there was "too much uncertainty so it is very much a wait and see time".
"With a more contagious virus and no clear sense on when lockdown might end in Auckland, the question of using a holiday particularly this early in the term is much less relevant," Rush said.
