August 23 2021
New Zealand will stay in alert level 4 lockdown until at least midnight on Friday, and Auckland will stay locked down until at least midnight on Tuesday next week. Earlier today it was announced there are now 107 Covid cases in NZ.
Auckland is facing a grim outlook on the transport front from the impacts of the level 4 lockdown, which one modeller says could be in place for several more weeks across the city.
Auckland Transport leaders have spelt out the uncertainty and financial constraints posed by Covid-19 and City RailLink Ltd chief executive Dr Sean Sweeney said the lockdown will have a "significant impact" on the $4.4 billion project.
The coming weeks are shaping up as a repeat of last year when the only people using public transport were essential workers and revenue from public transport, parking and the regional petrol tax shrunk.
In the week before the Government put Auckland back into level 4 lockdown, public transport was still in catch-up mode, running at 74 per cent of pre-Covid levels. On Monday this week, just 8650 people used the bus, train and HOP card ferry services.
Essential workers are the only people using public transport in level 4. Photo / Sylvie Whinray
Public transport numbers remain below pre-Covid levels due to the loss of international students who did 3.5 million trips a year, other students switching to online study, people working from home and a reluctance by some people, particularly the elderly, to return to public transport.
Te Pūnaha Matatini modeller Professor Shaun Hendy has said we will likely see level 4 lockdown in place for several weeks more in the Auckland region.
In a document written before last week's level 4 lockdown and signed off by AT board chairwoman Adrienne Young-Cooper and chief executive Shane Ellison, the council body fortuitously predicted an uncertain future from further outbreaks and lockdowns due to Covid-19.
While the document said AT had $820m this year for capital work, it said most of this money was for committed works and projects deferred from last year. Difficult decisions still had to be made from the effects of the pandemic, it said.
The $1.4b Eastern Busway - the second largest project in Auckland behind the CRL - has already been put back by two years after the council cut AT's budget from $940m to $820m in June.
Botany councillor Paul Young called the setback "totally unacceptable" and a "big blow".
The $1.4 billion Eastern Busway will go from Panmure to Pakuranga to Botany. Photo / Supplied
The Eastern Busway is a dedicated busway, similar to the Northern Busway, for the car-dependent eastern suburbs. Once complete in 2027, it is expected to carry 30,000 people a day between the rapidly growing southeastern suburbs and the rail network at Panmure.
Sweeney said the lockdown will have a significant impact on the CRL, but this will not be fully quantified until sometime after the lockdown ends.
The 3.4km rail project from Britomart to Mt Eden has experienced difficulties getting specialised tunnelling staff from overseas, navigating visa and MIQ processes; and is facing rising cost pressures.
The Government has allowed the tunnel boring machine, making its way from Mt Eden to the central city, to continue working under level 4 because of the risk of it getting trapped deep below the city.
The level 4 lockdown will have a significant impact on the City Rail Link, says project boss Dr Sean Sweeney. Photo / City Rail Link Ltd
"The pressure from earth settling around any stationary tunnel boring machine could trap that machine. If that happened here, the cost involved in freeing the machine would completely derail the project," said Sweeney.
The AT document - a draft State of Intent to be agreed between AT and the council - has also warned of work being hampered by shifting Covid levels, and Covid-related budget cuts to keep the city's 7638km of roads, footpaths, bus shelters and other assets up to scratch.
"Without action and sustained focus to address these issues, the local network asset base will fall below standard, leading to decreasing reliability, safety risks and higher costs to resolve in the long-term," said the document for the council-controlled organisation oversight committee.
Another cloud hanging over AT is a looming $400m funding hole from the money it receives from the NZ Transport Agency, Waka Kotahi.
The transport agency has indicated it will only fund $2.3 billion of the $2.7b the council sought over the next three years through the National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) from fuel taxes and road user charges.
Council's finance committee chairwoman Desley Simpson said without the extra $400 million "the council will be extremely limited in the transport investment we can deliver for the city because frankly so much of what we do is jointly funded".
She was referring to the fact that most projects undertaken by AT qualify for a 50 per cent subsidy from Waka Kotahi. The loss of $400m from Waka Kotahi could put up to $800m worth of projects at risk of being axed or deferred.
Empty motorways means less money from the regional petrol tax. Photo / Dean Purcell
The board of Waka Kotahi is due to confirm the final funding allocation when it adopts the NLTP this month.
A source told the Herald it might work out all right but if it doesn't then "holy s…".
Peter Gudsell, the chief financial officer for the Auckland Council group that includes AT, said it is too soon to know the extent to which council finances may be impacted by the latest lockdown, but expected a loss in public transport fares, parking fees and the regional fuel tax.
AT's revenue from public transport, parking and enforcement was down by $116m last year. However, it received $93.5 from Waka Kotahi to meet the shortfall in public transport revenue and other Covid-related costs, like cleaning buses.
Auckland Transport chief executive Shane Ellison. Photo / File
A Waka Kotahi spokeswoman said the agency is again providing financial support to councils for public transport as an essential service this year.
Gudsell said the extension of the level 4 lockdown in Auckland until August 31 "means there are strong headwinds", but said the council is in a reasonably strong financial position to remain agile.
The impact from Covid last year punched a $1b hole in the council's finances through to 2024, although the better-than-expected rebound in the Auckland economy reduced the figure to $750m.
Gudsell said the uncertainty created by the pandemic means it is not possible to forecast specific impacts at this early stage.
Mayor Phil Goff said the lockdown certainly imposes a cost on the city, both to the council and wider city, but it is necessary to stop the virus spreading rapidly across the community, costing lives and overwhelming the hospital system.
