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Fiji will be on tenterhooks today with the expected return of its outspoken military chief Commodore Frank Bainimarama, whose brinkmanship with the Government has raised fresh fears of an imminent coup.
Commodore Bainimarama is due to return to Fiji after visiting New Zealand for the christening of his granddaughter.
Fiji Police Commissioner Andrew Hughes told the Herald yesterday that the situation in Fiji was grave and he expected it to deteriorate rapidly when the military commander returned.
Mr Hughes, who has previously played down concerns of a fourth coup, said the commodore had made clear his intention to remove the Fijian Government.
"There is nothing I, or anyone else in Fiji, can do to control the commander when he returns."
Commodore Bainimarama has said on the fijilive.com website that Mr Hughes, an Australian, should leave Fiji as things are going to "blow up".
At the weekend Commodore Bainimarama called about 1000 reservists back to their barracks, saying he intended to "clean up" the Government. He warned foreign powers against interfering.
The military chief has been demanding the Government back down on proposed law changes surrounding the ownership of coastal resources and land rights in the Qoliqoli Bill and Land Tribunal Bill, which he claims puts the country's stability at risk. He also wants the police to back off investigating him for alleged sedition.
Commodore Bainimarama has already succeeded in getting the Government to drop a clause in its Racial Tolerance and Unity Bill that would have allowed amnesty for perpetrators of the 2000 coup, but also wants ministers implicated in that uprising removed from office. He was also enraged by a police search of the office of President Ratu Josefa Iloilo last week as part of sedition investigations.
Australian Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer has said he believes a military coup is likely in the next week or two, and three warships are on standby, ready to evacuate Australians.
Mr Downer told the ABC yesterday that Australia, New Zealand and the United States had been doing their best to discourage the commodore "but he still seems to me to be pretty set on his plans". He also claimed New Zealand had moved some of its high commission staff out of Suva because of a "specific threat" against Kiwis.
A New Zealand Foreign Affairs spokesman would neither confirm nor deny that yesterday, saying only that some staff and their dependants had been temporarily shifted out of Suva "in response to security".
Fijian Prime Minister Laisenia Qarase yesterday told the Fijian Parliament he was still willing to enter into dialogue with Commodore Bainimarama and called on the military not to consider him and the Government as adversaries. However, the military is now calling on the police to investigate Mr Qarase and others who tried to remove the commodore this month.
A Fijian governance expert, Dr Steven Ratuva, said the positions appeared entrenched but he hoped the impasse could still be broken.
Dr Ratuva said Mr Downer's comments, including that a regional military response might be justified, did not help the situation. That had given impetus for the commander to mobilise reservists, even though no one seriously thought Australia would invade.
