By Susan Edmunds of RNZ
House prices have softened in most suburbs around the country in the past quarter – with some notable exceptions.
Corelogic’s latest Mapping the Market data showed 50% of the suburbs it tracked had “meaningful” value increases over the past year.
Out of 951 suburbs, 480 had at least a 1% increase in their median value compared to September 2023.
But since June, 674 – or 71% – saw their values drop, and 175 by at least 2%.
Among those that did not drop in the most recent month or three months were Kew, Invercargill, with a median price of $371,450. Its price was up 6.9% over three months and 1.8% over one month.
Otautau had the next biggest increase, up 6.3% over three months. Clifton, Invercargill was third, up 5.1%.
Double-digit gains were recorded in eight suburbs in the year to September, led by the top increase of 22.6% to a median value of $313,000 in Cobden and 15.9% to $333,750 in Blaketown, both in Grey District.
At the other end, East Tāmaki, Auckland, was down 6.9% over three months and 1.1% over one month.
The next sharpest decline was in Northpark, Auckland, down 6.6% over three months and 1% in one month. The third-largest decline was in Somerville, Auckland, which was flat over one month but down 6.3% over three months. All three suburbs had lower median prices than a year ago.
Corelogic chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said the declines in Auckland’s market were notable.
“The renewed weakness in Auckland’s market reflects broader affordability pressures and cautious buyer sentiment, which are now evident across several regions beyond Auckland,” he said.
The suburbs with the largest falls had median prices that ranged from $1.047 million in East Tāmaki to $1.43m in Somerville.
Davidson cautioned against reading too much into the suburb data because factors such as a new subdivision could affect the prices.
But at a broad level, it seemed that cheaper areas had been more resilient in the past three to six months, he said.
“The areas that have seen the most growth have tended to have lower house prices … There will be a lot of local factors but affordability is one reason – those areas towards the cheaper end of the spectrum held up better.
“If you’re feeling secure in your job and can find a cheaper house, that will support the market a bit more.”
It was not surprising that so many suburbs had recorded value drops, since the overall market data had been weak in recent months, he said.
The impact of interest rate cuts, along with the official cash rate drop in August, could be expected to be seen more clearly in the data in about four to six weeks.
“Mortgage rates were falling a bit prior to the official cash rate so that’s already to some extent given a wee bit of a sentiment boost. There’s going to be an impact there – at an individual deal level, mortgage rates will be playing through to people’s sentiment if not their direct finances too, I expect some impact.”
But there were still a number of job losses happening and a large number of listings, which would help to alleviate any upward price pressure in the meantime, he said.
Houses were also relatively unaffordable still for many people.
“Then, of course, at some stage over the next nine to 12 months, debt-to-income ratios (DTIs) will kick in as well.”
He said it was estimated that when home loan rates dropped to about 5.5%, DTIs would be more of a constraint on borrowers.
“If we get to the stage in the middle of next year where the economy has started to recover, people are more secure in their jobs and interest rates are lower, that could be just the time DTIs might kick in.”
There could be another 12 or 18 months where the market was flat. That was consistent with the experience after the global financial crisis (GFC), he said.
“The housing market after the GFC was pretty flat for four or five years,” he said. “There was a burst of growth that then reversed and from 2007 it took until 2012 to get a more sustainable upturn. If that’s any precedent, we’re only three years into that cycle now.
“We’ve still got 18 to 24 months of relatively subdued activity and prices before things take their next upward leg. Even that upward leg could be smaller than in the past, because of things like DTIs.
“It’s a pretty big shift … it could mean we have less capital growth than in the past.”
Government efforts to improve supply and potential taxes on property and wealth could also limit the price rises in future, he said.
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