Cooler start to summer tipped

Photo / Doug Sherring

The start of summer is likely to be cooler than average for parts of the North Island, while anticyclones and weak southwesterly winds could hit the west of the country.

However, Niwa's seasonal climate outlook for the next three months said the rest of the country was likely to experience normal conditions.

Temperatures were likely to be average or below average in the north and west of the North Island between November and January.

Rainfalls were expected to be normal or below normal in the north and east of the North Island, and near normal for the rest of the country.

In Auckland, temperatures were likely to be average or below average, while rainfalls were expected to be normal or below normal. Soil moisture and river flows would likely be normal or above normal in the North Island, and normal or below normal in the South Island.

Niwa said atmospheric and oceanic indicators in the Pacific Ocean were at borderline El Nino thresholds, suggesting a weak El Nino was likely.

A tropical cyclone was unlikely in the next three months, but the chance of one occurring was elevated in the latter half of the tropical cyclone season from February to April 2015.

Meanwhile, MetService has predicted a cooler than average November across the country, especially for the first fortnight of the month.