Cool end to a miserable summer

The change from summer to autumn may be barely detectable, suggests Niwa. Photo / Herald on Sunday

There may not be much of a difference in temperatures as autumn slips in to replace an uninspiring summer, National Climate centre Niwa says.

The current El Nino continues at moderate strength in the Pacific, but is likely to weaken during the autumn.

That means temperatures were likely to continue to be on the cool side, and drier than normal conditions were also likely to continue in the north of the North Island.

The centre's latest climate outlook forecasts that for February to April mean sea level pressures were likely to be higher than normal to the north of the country and will be associated with slightly stronger than normal westerlies over the country.

Niwa said autumn rainfall totals were likely to be in the normal or below normal range in the north and east of the North Island and in Marlborough, normal or above normal in the western South Island, and in the normal range in other regions.

Temperatures were likely to be near average or below average in all regions. There would still be variability, with some warm spells at times, especially in eastern regions in north-westerly wind conditions.

River flows and soil moisture were likely to be near normal or below normal in the North Island, near normal in the north and east of the South Island, and normal or above normal in the western South Island.

Regional predictions for the next three months:

* Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty:

Temperatures were equally likely to be near average or below average. Seasonal rainfall totals were expected to be near normal or below normal, while river flows and soil moisture levels were forecast to be below normal.

* Central North Island, Taranaki, Wanganui, Manawatu and Wellington:

Seasonal temperatures were likely to be average or below average. Rainfall was expected to be near normal, while stream flows and soil moisture levels were likely to be near normal or below normal, for the three months as a whole.

* Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, Wairarapa:

Temperatures averaged over the three months were likely to be near average or below average. Seasonal rainfall totals, stream flows and soil moisture levels were forecast to be below normal.

* Nelson, Marlborough, Buller:

Seasonal temperatures were expected to be below average. Rainfalls, stream flows and soil moisture levels were likely to be normal overall, but with below normal rainfalls more likely in the east of the region.

* West Coast, Alps and Foothills, Inland Otago, Southland:

Temperatures were forecast to be average or below average. Seasonal rainfall, stream flows and soil moisture levels are equally likely to be near normal or above normal.

* Coastal Canterbury, East Otago:

Temperatures were expected to be near average. Seasonal rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and stream flows were all forecast to be in the normal range.

- NZPA