Commentator: Shearer has two years, Robertson in wings

Grant Robertson. Photo / Mark Mitchell

If David Shearer is not performing within two years he'll be gone, political commentator Dr Bryce Edwards says.

The Otago University lecturer said the decision to elect the one-term MP as the new Labour leader was "bold" and showed the party realise they needed to make significant changes following their poor performance on election day.

"He's pretty untested, unproven and he isn't very well known, so it is a huge risk they've taken. It is a bold decision they've made, so I'm impressed by them taking that risk.

"It's quite obvious that a big part of the reason that he won is simply by the fact that he is not David Cunliffe. That's a bit of a negative reason to be elected."

Dr Edwards does not believe the party will give Mr Shearer a long time to find his feet in the role, unlike Phil Goff who was given an entire term despite poor poll ratings.

"I just think that David Shearer is going to be given really just two years maximum. If he is not performing within two years he'll be gone. I'm sure he accepts that as well.

"This is a gamble they've taken. He will have to improve fast because he has shown a fair bit of weakness in the past weeks, on the road show and on TV, so it is just a question of whether those weaknesses can be ironed out and improved upon."

Dr Edwards felt the election of Grant Robertson as Mr Shearer's deputy may prove to be the more significant decision.

"In this contest it is him that has been outshining all the other contenders for both the leadership and the deputy. There will be an ongoing discussion that whenever Shearer falters, whenever he trips, there will be discussion maybe Grant Robertson should be leader. Is it just a matter of time before Shearer is rolled by Grant Robertson?"

Dr Edwards said it was "far from certain" whether Mr Shearer could defeat Prime Minister John Key in three years time.

"I'd say the odds are against it at the moment. The David Shearer that we see at the end of 2011 could not take out the John Key that we see in 2011. It's just a question of how quickly David Shearer can sharpen up and become something a bit more special."

Comparisons between Mr Key and Mr Shearer, as new MPs who have taken over their parties, have been "overplayed" by Labour commentators, Dr Edwards said.
"I don't think that narrative stands up that well.

"They both exude authenticity, some sort of realness. But at the moment John Key does appear to be an incredibly safe pair of hands and competent, and David Shearer just doesn't have that factor yet. Hopefully from his point of view he can grow into that, but at this stage he does appear a bit bumbling and unconfident."

- Herald Online Staff