Comment: National's poll bump – It's too early for leader Todd Muller to break out the bubbly

National leader Todd Muller meets with locals at the Mataekakaho Hall near Hastings today. Photo / Duncan Brown

COMMENT:

National's new leader Todd Muller will be breathing a sigh of relief after tonight's poll put his party at 38 per cent.

But it's too soon for him to be bringing out the bubbly.

A result any less than 35 per cent would have been a disaster for Muller and his team.

The Colmar Brunton/ 1News poll is the first major poll since he took over as leader five weeks ago.

Tonight's result is a far cry from the 29 per cent National was polling at before he toppled Simon Bridges.

But Muller cannot take all the credit for National's nine-percentage-point jump – Labour is coming down from crisis levels of support.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern leading New Zealand's Covid-19 fight saw Labour rise to the lofty heights of 59 per cent.

It's back down to 50 per cent.

Much of that dramatic jump was down to the "rally-around-the-flag" effect, whereby the Government gets a major bump in the polls after a national tragedy or disaster.

It happened with National after the Christchurch earthquake.

In fact, Ardern might have been breathing a sigh of relief in her ninth-floor Beehive office after seeing the numbers tonight.

The poll was taken between last Saturday and Wednesday this week – meaning it captured the full fallout of the Government's border blunders.

That saga has consumed the political narrative this week and the Government risked losing much of the goodwill it garnered throughout the lockdown.

It could have been a lot worse than 9 per cent for Labour.

Despite the drop, on these numbers Labour would be able to govern alone. Ardern wouldn't need the Greens and, more importantly, she would not need Winston Peters' New Zealand First.

He was the big loser from tonight's poll – the 1.8 per cent result is the worst since 2012, in the Colmar poll.

Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters speaks to media on his way to the debating chamber Photo / Pool

In the absence of winning an electorate seat, New Zealand First's nine MPs would be out of Parliament.

Peters' back is well and truly against the wall – that was clear even before tonight's poll.

Three times this week, he has flexed political muscle and killed or blocked legislation.

It's a tactic seen before; an attempt to show his supporters – and would-be supporters – he can throw his weight around in Cabinet and get results.

He was spitting venom at reporters asking about the poll today, saying the numbers were "crap".

But, with less than three months until the election, there is no doubt the political veteran will be worried.