KEY POINTS:
There's really only one word to sum up the weather this week: cold.
The low that I described last week as being "the size of Australia" is, due to it's size, still with us as we kick off the new week. But now we're getting the tail end of the system - this is the end that is sucking up cold Antarctic air right over New Zealand and - as the Weather Watch Centre predicted last Tuesday - there could be some light snow flurries to sea level along the South Island's southern and eastern districts over today and Tuesday.
The day time highs this week - including traditionally warmer places like Auckland - will all struggle to make it into the teens. There'll be mostly single digit highs for a number of places south of Wellington for the first few days of the week and Aucklanders can expect the mercury to struggle to reach 13.
Even if it does make it into the lower teens, the wind chill will make it feel more like 8 or 9 for much of the day for those even in the 'winterless' north. If you want to feel any warmth this week, I suggest finding a sheltered place out in the sun.
The sun is definitely feeling much stronger now and sheltered areas can be quite pleasant. In fact, the UV index is already on the rise - reaching 3, or moderate, this week - a hint that Spring is closer than it may feel (and that we dont have a healthy ozone layer!) You can see I'm grasping at straws here, trying to make people feel better about another showery, windy, week on the way!
I know what you're wanting to ask - "When will the sunny, dry, weather return?". Well some sheltered places, like Bay of Plenty, Nelson, Marlborough, even Waikato and eastern parts of Northland, should all have a mainly dry week. In fact plenty of sunshine and those gusty cold winds should help dry the ground out a little bit. Frosts are also likely later in the week when those winds die down.
Auckland won't be so lucky, with those sou'westers blowing showers in off the Tasman - but they'll be few and far between - and there'll still be plenty of time to go for walks without umbrellas.
A small ridge of high pressure over northern New Zealand on Thursday is likely to mean a brief period of settled weather for the north (the South will also see an improvement but it'll be bitterly cold) and on Friday a norwester could make it feel quite spring like across Auckland.
Now, the part I've been dreading. It's still winter, so that means fronts and lows are common place... and... well ... the next one is scheduled to arrive on Friday - yep, just in time for the weekend. But hey, long range forecasts are notoriously incorrect right?
Well, there's a 60% confidence of another wet weekend this weekend - which is pretty high considering it's still a number of days out. This next system should move through quicker than this past weekend's low. Will have more details here on Wednesday - and of course for other weather updates go to the Weather Watch Centre.
Philip Duncan
For the latest weather news keep up to date with The Radio Network's new Weather Watch Centre or the NZ Herald weather section.
Pictured above: Ngauruhoe and Tongariro, looking from the west. A weekend of freezing temperatures brought snow to the central North Island and caused the closure of roads around Mt Ruapehu. Photo / Sarah Ivey
