Coalition talks in earnest on final tally

Caretaker Prime Minister Helen Clark will resume talks on forming the new government in earnest on Monday - assuming Labour is still the largest party after the final election result is known this morning.

The Chief Electoral Office expects to release the final result, including the counting of more than 200,000 special votes, at 11am.

All eyes will be on the result and whether it overturns the finely balanced makeup of Parliament delivered on election night two weeks ago. Labour has 50 seats to National's 49.

Helen Clark will be in Nelson this afternoon with Prince Andrew, the Duke of York. National leader Don Brash will be in Wellington.

The Prime Minister held an initial flurry of meetings last week with the Maori Party and Green Party co-leaders, United Future leader Peter Dunne, and NZ First leader Winston Peters.

Those talks will start again on Monday in earnest and also involve Deputy Prime Minister Michael Cullen. Labour's caucus is expected to be briefed on Tuesday on progress.

The key result the specials will either confirm or overturn is which of the two big parties is the largest. National has to make up a 23,000 vote deficit to catch up with Labour. Indications are it will not succeed.

The Green Party, meanwhile, hopes the special votes will deliver it a seventh MP. It needs to lift its party vote from 5.07 per cent to 5.32 per cent and on past performance in special votes it is a possibility.

The chances of the Greens falling below the 5 per cent threshold and disappearing - which National will be hoping for - are seen as remote.

Another possibility is that the Maori Party gains enough specials in the party votes to be allocated three MPs, which would reduce Parliament's overhang by one and mean a 121-MP House. To do that it would have to lift its party vote from 1.98 per cent to 2.05 per cent.

That would make Helen Clark's job easier, as she would only need 61 votes, instead of 62, for a majority.

An outside chance is that special votes could return Matt Robson for the Progressives.

Otaki Labour MP Darren Hughes, who is sitting on a slender 226 vote majority over National's Nathan Guy, will also be watching the special votes. The Weekend Herald understands indications are he will hold the seat and increase his majority slightly.

- additional reporting Ainsley Thomson