Clinics struggle to cope with swine flu rush

Accident and medical centres in Auckland are struggling to cope with a rising flood of swine-flu cases.

"We are absolutely inundated," the chief executive of the White Cross network of clinics, Alistair Sullivan, said yesterday.

The eight White Cross clinics in Auckland and one in Whangarei usually have about 2500 patients a day - now they are seeing close to 3500.

Dr Sullivan said the number of patients had increased sharply in the past fortnight and as the situation worsened patients would have to wait longer to be seen.

Compounding the pressure, about a tenth of the clinics' staff are off sick, some with swine flu.

"Doctors, nurses and receptionists are dropping like flies with symptoms of influenza-like illness. It has really affected our ability to provide services."

He said the situation was far worse than the flu season last year, which was later in the year and did not reach 3000 patients a day.

Dr Sullivan said clinics were close to not being able to cope.

But primary care group Procare Health said its 600 affiliated GPs were coping well with the swine flu outbreak.

"They are pretty well prepared for this," said chief executive Ron Hooton. "They are managing very well."

A spokeswoman for Auckland's three health boards said community-based assessment centres for swine flu cases could be opened at short notice, but they had not been needed.

New Zealand's first community-based assessment centre opened in Christchurch last month.

The Ministry of Health said yesterday the tally of confirmed swine flu cases stood at 1195, including three deaths linked to the virus.

It said 53 people were in hospital - 12 of them in intensive care - with the disease or its complications.

The ministry has asked people to phone first if they want to see a doctor about flu-like symptoms, rather than turning up unannounced and possibly infecting others in the waiting room.

Dr Sullivan said that because most White Cross patients were "walk-ins", only a few phoned before arriving with flu-like illness.

When patients arrived with flu symptoms, they were usually offered a face mask. Most were put into an isolation room with their family, but sometimes some had to stay in the waiting room.

New broad death toll estimates have been published to help health planners.

Otago University researchers, using four different methods, estimate in a European journal that the case-fatality rate could range from 0.06 per cent to 0.0004 per cent.

If 30 per cent of the New Zealand population catch swine flu and have symptoms, those estimates would equal between five and 783 deaths.

The last calculation from the Health Ministry was that the number of deaths is not likely to exceed 200 and may be substantially lower.

About 400 deaths a year are associated with seasonal flu.