KEY POINTS:
New Zealand will become more vulnerable to floods, storms and fire as a result of global warming and climate change over the next century, an international report released today claims.
Scientists told media the outlook for New Zealand was not all "doom and despondency" despite the report's bleak forecast.
New Zealand Climate Science Coalition spokesman Augie Auer said, that the report was more of the same.
The projections had no realism at all, with a computer generating different outcomes based on contrived situations, he said.
"They have no way of determining what will happen."
Mr Auer said he had noticed an attempt to not be as bleak in this report as on previous occasions, with the use of a more optimistic forecasts.
Despite this the debate was being led by alarmists, he said.
"Jim Salinger has come out and said in drier places, it will get drier.
"In wetter places, it will get wetter.
"Well that's a real no brainer, isn't it?"
Mr Auer said the science was not settled on the issue and debate was needed.
The involvement of the MetService in the latest report was also questionable, he said.
Coastal communities
Coastal communities will be the worst hit by climate change in New Zealand, according to the report.
Sea levels have already risen by about 70mm since 1950 and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns not enough is being done.
Coastal development and population growth in areas such as Northland to Bay of Plenty could increase risks from sea-level rise and greater severity and frequency of storms and coastal flooding by 2050, the report said.
"Vigorous" western swells and increasing westerly winds are predicted.
The report added that "differences in political commitment, lack of strong and clear guidelines from government, and legal challenges by property owners" were significant constraints to tackling the problem.
Other major issues facing New Zealand include risks to water security and natural ecosystems.
NIWA's Dr Jim Salinger, today releasing the local conclusions of a worldwide report finalised in Brussels last Friday, said: "The potential impacts of climate change for New Zealand are likely to be substantial without further adaptation."
However, he said a strong economy and advanced technical and scientific skills left the country well placed to tackle the problem.
The report's findings include a claim that, as a result of reduced rainfall and increased evaporation, water supply problems will intensify by 2030 in Northland and some eastern regions.
Biodiversity could be hit in alpine areas and the sub Antarctic Islands.
Agriculture and forestry production is predicted to decline by 2030 over parts of eastern New Zealand due to increased drought and fire.
But western and southern areas and close to major rivers could see initial benefits due to a longer growing season, less frost, and increased rainfall.
A southward shift in agricultural pests and diseases is likely.
Changes since 1950:
* Mean temperature 0.4 °C warmer
* 10-20 days less cold nights and frosts per year
* Sea level rise of about 70mm
* Loss of at least a quarter of alpine ice mass
- NZHERALD STAFF / NZPA
