Clark warns Brash not to 'count chickens'

Prime Minister Helen Clark at the St Mary's Family Centre in Auckland today. Phil Walter / Getty Images

Prime Minister Helen Clark says National "shouldn't count their chickens before they hatch", despite leaping to an eight point advantage in the latest opinion poll.

A One News-Colmar Brunton poll out last night put National on 46 per cent support -- on the back of its tax cuts policy and race relations stance -- while Labour had slipped to 38 per cent.

Labour has dismissed the survey as an inaccurate rogue poll and Helen Clark today said she believed the election remained close.

In the final two weeks of the campaign voters had a choice between a government which had "delivered the bacon for New Zealand" or a party offering radical change, she said.

"At the end its going to come down to leadership, who you trust, who you believe, and whether you really want to make the radical change back to Rogernomics the Ruthanasia stuff, the misery of the 1990s," Helen Clark said today on Newstalk ZB.

"I think people then start to focus on the fact that tax cuts don't build your hospitals and pay for your nurses, they don't build your schools and pay for your teachers, actually you can end up with a very small government and not many services at all."

Voters also needed to be wary of the fact that National would need the support of New Zealand First to form a government and the two parties had a poor record of working together, Helen Clark said.

But National Party leader Don Brash told National Radio he wasn't presuming anything and that the polls were likely to be volatile until the end of the campaign.

He said it was "a bit premature" to be discussing potential coalitions as some of its potential partners were polling below the 5 per cent threshold.

Last night's poll was the third in a week to put National ahead of Labour.

The Greens were the third highest rating party in the poll at 6 per cent support, while NZ First was sitting just below the 5 per cent threshold.

Of the other parties the Maori Party registered 2 per cent support and ACT, United Future and Destiny NZ just 1 per cent.

Translated into seats in Parliament -- assuming that United Future, the Progressives and the Maori Party won electorate seats and NZ First sneaked past the 5 per cent threshold -- National would have 56 seats, and NZ First six, enabling them to form a government.

If NZ First's party vote did not cross the 5 per cent threshold and leader Winston Peters lost Tauranga, National would have 59 seats.

That would enable them to form a government with the support of United Future.

Prime Minister Helen Clark remained preferred prime minister for 40 per cent of voters, over the 31 per cent who preferred Dr Brash.

The poll of 1000 eligible voters had a margin of error of 3.2 per cent.

- NZPA