Clark takes stage at East Asia summit

Prime Minister Helen Clark's hotel stands in the shadows of Kuala Lumpur's stunning Petronas twin towers.

But the towers - and their shadow - will pale into insignificance once tomorrow's inaugural East Asian Summit begins. Helen Clark's dance card is already full - marked by bilateral dates with leaders of some of the world's most powerful countries.

Her face-time with political leaders from the Asean-plus three partners - Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and South Korean President Roh Moo-Hyun - will have a large bearing on the atmospherics when East Asian leaders try to put some flesh on the bones of an idea whose time has definitely come.

Premier Wen will inevitably want to canvass the patchy progress on bilateral free trade negotiations. But he will also be weighing the impact on the group's power balance if the Asean-plus three trade deal - the largest regional deal under way in the region - is superseded by the development of an East Asian free trade area which also encompasses New Zealand and Australia (CER partners), India, and, in time Russia.

This is potentially momentous stuff. New Zealand is locked out of the two major trading blocks: European Union and the North American Free Trade Area .

As Helen Clark noted yesterday, "the burgeoning East Asia group is one that New Zealand cannot afford to be excluded from. If there's going to be three big regions, we've got to be linked somewhere."

Asean officials say it is essential that their 10-nation group remains the driving force of the East Asia Summit, which is expected to be confirmed tomorrow as an annual event.

Economic and trade ministers from the 16 nations represented at the summit are also expected to be tasked with investigating how to drive forward integration in a gradual fashion.

And a communique emphasising regional cooperation on bird flu will be released.

But this is small beer compared to what is potentially in the wings. Any number of proud Asian politicians have boasted here over the past few days that an East Asia free trade area would dwarf the existing trade groups.

It is also being said (not at all subtly, particularly by newly resurgent Indian politicians and businessmen) that this is simply a reversion to the natural order of the early 1800s when Asia dominated trade. Not Europe. Nor America.

Racial dynamics have taken precedence in the past. But Asean is attempting to overcome any nascent friction by portraying the group as geopolitically oriented, not simply geographical.

Her pre-summit diplomacy will be essential in flushing out any lingering tensions over the inclusion of the two "Asian Occidentals" within the East Asian club.

Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamed launched a pre-emptive strike against New Zealand and Australia last week, alleging the transtasman neighbours are US pawns.

"I have always opposed the idea of Australia and New Zealand being in the group, simply because Australia and New Zealand are not really East nor are they Asian.

Mahathir's open sledging could be read as the bitter words of a politician who must sit on the sidelines while others implement his vision for an East Asian community.

But it would be foolish to believe he is on his own.

Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar has privately assured the Asean secretariat that both countries are welcome.

"Dr Mahathir has his opinion but it is just one of his opinions and at the practical working level their Government was committed to having New Zealand and Australia in this forum," Asean secretary-general Ong Keng Yong says.

But Malaysian Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmed Badawi has nevertheless publicly steered clear of including the Antipodean countries along with the Asean-plus three group, which is the subject of a study into whether a fully-fledged East Asian free trade area could be set up by 2020.

Questions on this score to powerful trade ministers and business people at an adjoining business summit also drew a blank

Clark's meeting with Indonesia President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is potentially the most influential. His presidency is still in its early days. But Asean regards him as a step up on his predecessors.

He has been praised for the way he tackled internal corruption and terrorism, and he has received international kudos for the gracious way he accepted help from other neighbours, particularly Australia's John Howard, when the tsunami devastated coastal Aceh on Boxing Day.

His stature has grown to the point where he is being talked about - if not outright groomed - as the informal leader by Asean's secretariat.

THE EAST-ASIA SUMMIT

What is it?

A talkfest where leaders from 16 nations meet in Malaysia's capital, Kuala Lumpur, for the first time in what is being seen as an open, inclusive regional development.

Who's there?

The 10 Asean countries, plus Japan, China, South Korea, Australia, India and New Zealand. Asean is made up of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar. The countries taking part account for about half of the world's population and a fifth of world trade.

How significant is it?

According to some, very. They envisage a regional bloc along the lines of the European Union. But others suggest it could all just end in a puff of hot air.

Why are NZ and Australia going?

Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad would probably ask the same thing. He has dismissed the summit as "useless" because Australia is going, suggesting it is "deputy sheriff" to the US and will browbeat Asian countries into accepting US trade and globalisation policies.

Is the summit the only action in Kuala Lumpur this week?

No, there are a numerous other summits also going on, including the 11th Asean summit, the 9th Asean + 3 summit (that's Asean plus Japan, China and Korea), the 9th Asean-China summit, the 9th Asean-Japan summit, the 4th Asean-India summit and the Asean-Russia summit.